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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +225 over Philadelphia

Janson Junk (RHP- Miami) — 4.45 ERA 

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP- Philadelphia) — 2.55 ERA

6:40 PM EST. Cristopher Sanchez owns the much better ERA in this matchup, but this is strictly a numbers play for us and the current price on Philadelphia is simply too high. Janson Junk brings a 4.45 ERA into today's start, but that number alone does not justify the size of the gap between these two clubs. We are looking deeper into the current pitching profiles and putting considerably more emphasis on the underlying metrics than the surface ERA.

Sanchez has been excellent from a run-prevention standpoint, but a 2.55 ERA has created a premium price that we believe has gone too far. Junk does not need to outpitch Sanchez for Miami to cash this ticket; he needs to keep the Marlins within striking distance while the lineup takes advantage of the inflated number. The value here comes from the relationship between the pitching numbers and the betting price rather than simply choosing the pitcher with the lower ERA.

That makes this a very straightforward betting decision for us. We are not trying to argue that Junk is the superior starter, and we are not ignoring what Sanchez has accomplished. We are saying the market has made Philadelphia far too expensive, and the numbers give us enough reason to take the other side. Miami is getting the type of price that deserves our attention, particularly in a matchup where one good offensive inning can completely change the complexion of the game.

We are taking Miami on the road to beat Philadelphia. This is a pure numbers play, and the line is outrageous in our opinion. We simply cannot overlook the value being offered on the Marlins, and this is worth a play regardless of the final score. We will gladly take the inflated price and back Miami to pull the upset today.

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