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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota  +120 over Houston

Taj Bradley (RHP - MIN, 4.01 ERA)Tomoyuki Imai (RHP - HOU, 5.36 ERA)

8:10 PM EST. The Minnesota Twins have upset potential as a road dog behind Taj Bradley, who enters with a 4.01 ERA and the type of swing-and-miss arsenal capable of matching up with any lineup. Bradley has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning this season, pairing an upper-90s fastball with a sharp splitter that generates plenty of whiffs. While his ERA has been up and down, his advanced metrics suggest he has pitched better than the surface numbers indicate, and he has consistently limited hard contact when commanding the strike zone. Minnesota's offense has also been very productive against right-handed pitching this season, ranking near the top half of the American League in OPS and home runs versus righties, giving Bradley some solid run-support.

Houston turns to Tomoyuki Imai, who enters with a 5.36 ERA and has struggled to consistently keep runners off the bases. Although Imai has shown flashes of quality stuff, command issues and elevated hard-contact rates have contributed to his inflated ERA. Facing the Twins presents another difficult challenge, as Minnesota features a balanced lineup with power throughout the order and the ability to capitalize on mistakes. The Twins have been one of the better road offenses in the American League, and if they continue working deep counts, they can force Imai into an early exit.

Minnesota definitely has the ingredients to pull off the road upset. Bradley possesses the higher strikeout ceiling of the two starters, while the Twins' lineup has been more consistent than Houston's against right-handed pitching. If Bradley establishes his fastball early and Minnesota continues its disciplined offensive approach, the Twins can put pressure on Houston's pitching staff throughout the night. With the edge in the starting pitching matchup based on the heavy bats and stronger offensive potential against right-handed pitching, Minnesota is the play tonight.

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