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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit  +125 over New York

Troy Melton (RHP - DET, 2.43 ERA)Will Warren (RHP - NYY, 3.75 ERA)

1:35 PM EST. The Detroit Tigers have a solid opportunity to win on the road behind Troy Melton, who has provided stability every time he's taken the mound this season. Melton enters with a 2.43 ERA and has been particularly effective over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs across 12.0 innings while recording 11 strikeouts against only three walks. Although his underlying metrics (4.38 xERA, 11% K-BB rate) suggest some regression may eventually come, he continues to limit scoring opportunities and pitch efficiently. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Yankees lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching over the last month, batting just .216 with a 24.5% strikeout rate, making this another spot where Melton can work deep into the game.

The Yankees will counter with Will Warren, but his recent performance raises concerns. After putting together six outstanding starts, Warren has stumbled over his last two outings, surrendering 11 runs (seven earned) in 11.1 innings while posting just eight strikeouts and five walks. His advanced metrics have declined significantly over the past month, including a 4% K-BB rate, 7.7% swinging-strike rate, 37% hard-hit rate, and a 5.18 xERA, all well above his 4.03 season xERA. That regression comes at a difficult time against a Detroit offense that has started to heat up, batting .241 against right-handed pitching over the past month while producing an impressive .220 isolated power (ISO), showing an ability to drive the baseball for extra-base hits.

Detroit enters this matchup with advantages on both sides of the ball. The Tigers have been swinging the bats with more authority against right-handed pitching, while New York's lineup has struggled to consistently generate offense against righties. Even though Melton's underlying metrics hint that his ERA could rise over time, he has consistently delivered quality starts and faces an offense that has been one of the colder lineups in baseball over the past month. If Warren's recent command issues continue and Detroit continues its recent success against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have an excellent opportunity to take out the broom and sweep the Yankees.

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