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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia -1½  +120 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Jesús Luzardo (LHP – PHI) has quietly become one of the most reliable starters in the National League. The Phillies' left-hander has struck out 80 batters in 73 innings and carries an expected ERA of 3.26. The underlying metrics back up the results. His swing-and-miss numbers remain excellent, he's limiting quality contact, and he's been consistently effective for an extended period. There are very few holes to poke in Luzardo's profile right now.

Max Scherzer (RHP – TOR), meanwhile, returns from the injured list to make this start. The future Hall of Famer has managed just 10 strikeouts against eight walks in 18 innings this season, and the warning signs continue to pile up. Last year's decline in swing-and-miss rate and spike in home runs allowed looked like the first indication that age was finally catching up with him. At 41 years old and coming off another injury absence, it's difficult to expect a sudden return to peak form.

The market still tends to give Scherzer credit for what he used to be rather than what he is today. That's creating value on the other side. Philadelphia owns the edge on the mound, the edge in current form, and the edge in lineup depth. We'll gladly back the Phillies on the run line and continue fading Scherzer whenever the opportunity presents itself. This version of Mad Max isn't one we're interested in buying, and you may want to skip the sequel too.

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