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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Athletics -1½  +160 over Milwaukee

9:05 PM EST. What makes this matchup especially intriguing is the setting. The Athletics continue their temporary stay in Las Vegas while awaiting the completion of their permanent home, and Las Vegas Ballpark has quickly established itself as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in professional baseball. The total in this game is an eye-popping 14½, a number rarely seen outside of Coors Field and one that tells you exactly what oddsmakers are expecting. We got another reminder of that last night when runs poured in from every direction and both teams took full advantage of the offensive conditions. The dry air, favorable dimensions, and overall hitting environment create a perfect storm for crooked numbers.

Brandon Sproat (RHP – MIL) and Jack Perkins (RHP – ATH) are not exactly arriving in dominant form. Sproat carries a 6.26 ERA and has struggled to consistently put hitters away. Perkins has been tagged for a 7.25 ERA in limited action, but his 3.65 expected ERA paints a much different picture and suggests he's been far better than the results indicate. The Athletics right-hander has shown legitimate strikeout ability throughout his development and may be due for some positive regression.

The total is the key to this handicap. When sportsbooks are hanging a number as high as 14½, they're essentially telling bettors to expect offense in bunches. In games like that, reverse run lines become far more attractive because one big inning can create separation in a hurry. The Athletics have already shown they can thrive in this environment, and with Milwaukee sending a starter carrying an ERA north of six, another offensive explosion is well within reach. At +160, we're happy to take our chances on the Athletics winning by two runs or more.

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