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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +125 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. We’re going to take a shot with the road dog here, and the price is the entire story. Minnesota doesn’t need to dominate — they just need to be competitive — and the pitching matchup gives them every chance to do exactly that.

Patrick Corbin (LHP, Blue Jays)

From sworn off for good to… somewhat usable? Maybe. But the underlying skills never really improved. Last season’s better ERA and WHIP were driven more by favorable hit and strand rates than by any meaningful change in strikeout ability, command, or contact management. The long-term indicators — shaky BPX, declining run support history, and years of damage — still point in the same direction.

At age 36, Corbin is not reinventing himself. Toronto is running him out there largely because the rotation has taken on water, and that’s never a comforting reason to trust a favorite. When a veteran lefty with eroding skills is priced anywhere near even, that’s a situation we’re eager to oppose.

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, Twins)

Woods Richardson’s 2025 season took an unexpected turn when he fell ill with an intestinal parasite that required surgery. He returned late in the year and promptly posted a strong September — improved command, sharper strikeout-to-walk ratio, and more consistent execution.

Did the parasite give him superpowers like Spider-Man? Probably not — though if he starts climbing the foul pole tonight, we’ll revisit that theory. More realistically, he’s a young arm still developing, capable of keeping his team in the game and handing it off to the bullpen with a chance to win. That’s all we’re asking at this price.

The angle

This is a classic value spot: fading an aging, declining arm and backing the younger pitcher as an underdog. Minnesota doesn’t have to be great — they just have to be better than a pitcher whose best days are well behind him.

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