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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +135 over Chicago

2:20 PM EST. Take a deeper look into this matchup, where the surface numbers might nudge bettors toward the favorite, but the underlying metrics tell a much different story. Carmen Mlodzinski’s 4.00 ERA is fairly neutral on paper, yet his advanced profile—xERA and xFIP—suggests there’s more stability than people realize. He’s done a solid job limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard, and when his command is on, he can induce weak contact at a high rate. He’s not a flashy strikeout arm, but he doesn’t beat himself, and in a road underdog spot, that kind of steadiness carries real value.

Shota Imanaga, on the other side, comes in with a respectable ERA, but there are some warning signs under the hood. His xERA and xFIP tend to run higher due to a reliance on fly balls and a tendency to give up loud contact when he misses his spots. That profile can work when he’s locating perfectly, but when he’s even slightly off, it opens the door for crooked numbers. Against a lineup that can stay disciplined and capitalize on mistakes, that margin for error becomes razor thin.

This is exactly the type of game where grabbing plus money makes sense. The gap between these two starters isn’t nearly as wide as the market suggests, and when you factor in volatility from both sides, this game profiles much closer to a coin flip. Pittsburgh on the road at a plus price is the value side, plain and simple. You’re getting a live dog with a pitcher who can hold his own, and in a matchup like this, that’s not something you pass up.

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