Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Boston -1½ over Cleveland

11:10 AM EST. This is a quick turnaround for both teams, as this early “Patriot Day” game in Boston goes at 11:10 AM EST. However, the Red Sox were at home yesterday while the Guardians had to travel after a thrilling walk-off, comeback win in the bottom of the 10th inning over the Yankees in Cleveland. In case you missed it, the Guardians mounted multiple comebacks in that game, and when they finally plated the winning run to avoid the series sweep versus New York, the joy was palpable as the team rushed to first base to celebrate the win.

As for today, the Guardians will send Xzavion Curry (RHP - CLE) for his first start of the season, as he is coming off the inactive list after an illness. Curry has made two rehab starts with his last coming for Triple-A Columbus last Wednesday, where he gave up five hits in 4.1 innings. Curry began his transition from the bullpen to the rotation last season, with that move being rocky at best, which led to him being placed back in the bullpen after nine starts. His last six starts before getting demoted were particularly ugly as he gave up 19 earned runs on 32 hits across 25.1 innings. We don’t know how long Curry’s leash will be today, but he might get some extra time, even if he struggles because the Guardians used five relievers behind Logan Allen yesterday and three behind Carlos Carrasco on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox held on for a 5-4 win over the Angels at home at Fenway yesterday afternoon. Boston will go with Kutter Crawford (RHP - BOS) today, and while he is winless on the season, dude has pitched well allowing just one earned run on seven hits across 15.2 innings (three starts). Crawford posts a stellar 0.96 WHIP and his 0.57 ERA is backed by a 1.97 xERA. So far the biggest change in Crawford’s game is that he is inducing more ground balls than ever before with that number creeping into elite territory at 50% thus far. We’ve read in more than one place that Crawford cannot keep up his current pitching performance, but the early underlying numbers suggest that there might be something here and we are going to keep him on our radar.

Situationally speaking, we often look to fade teams that are coming off emotional, walk-off wins and the Guardians fit that bill to a T. Mix in the fact Cleveland had to travel and they are going with a relief pitcher masquerading as a starter, in his first start after an illness, that Stephen Vogt had to lean on his bullpen in the Yankee series, and that the Guardians had to travel to Beantown for this early start and the table is set for a potentially rough day at the office. Finally, the total in this game is o9 -120, which suggests the oddsmakers forecast fireworks today at Fenway. Just who is going to score those runs? We’re betting it’s the BoSox and we see great value in them to win this game going away.

Sherwood

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