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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Dodgers over Toronto

1:37 PM EST. On the surface, it might look like Kevin Gausman (RHP - TOR) is coming around after back-to-back starts in which he allowed just one earned run across 11.2 innings, but his last turn against the Royals on Tuesday was about as lucky as they come. While Gausman did not give up an earned run versus Kansas City, he was still tagged for seven hits while posting just two strikeouts and a brutal swing-and-miss rate of 4.0%, and a first-pitch strike rate of 57.1%, both his lowest in any of his five starts this season. Gausman is on our radar as a fade target, as his underlying numbers show that something just isn’t right.

Michael Grove’s (RHP - LAD) first half last year featured a six-week IL stint (groin), two demotions to AAA alongside mediocre skills and terrible luck. Dude reemerged in the second half with his K% and swing and miss rate blazing and subsequently turned his xERA and xWHIP around, though his unlucky hit rate still refused to cooperate, and a lat strain cost him most of Aug/Sept. The sample is small, and vL+ suggests a possible relief role, but he's intriguing enough to speculate on. Grove has appeared in 9 games this year, all in relief, but his xERA is rock solid, his swing and miss rate of 19% is off the charts, and even if he goes just two or three innings, the Dodgers always have a great chance. Grove has started more games at this level than he’s appeared out of the pen so starting is a role he’s comfortable in and he’s worth a wager here as a pooch.

Sherwood

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