Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -101 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105   888Sport -105

Milwaukee -101 over N.Y. Mets

1:40 PM EST. Jose Quintana was brought in to fill out a studly 2022 rotation, a trusted veteran wily enough to stay competitive (and employed). Then a stress reaction in his ribs kept him out of action until July 20. When J Verlander and Max Scherzer departed at the trade deadline, Quintana’s role went from an innings-eater to more of a force-feeding scenario. Unfortunately, his K% dipped below 20% for the first time since 2013, due in part to a drop in velocity. His sinker keeps batters off-balance, and nobody ever has a lot of luck with his curve, but Quintana allowed just enough opposing offense that his lack of run support couldn’t keep up. Given the beefier role he’s supposed to have in 2024, the Mets are expecting him to stay healthy and go six innings but the Mets expect a lot of things. After missing almost four months due to bone graft surgery on his rib, Quintana, the crafty veteran southpaw pitched competently but again, his velocity, and swinging strike rate sagged. At age 35, xERA range is league average on his best day, which does not make him opening day worthy.

Overall the Mets are on their way somewhere. When a disgusted Max Scherzer informed the public that the Mets would no longer be contending again until maybe as late as 2026, that made 2024 a year of massive calculations. Outside of their stars like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and closer Edwin Díaz, the Mets have a lot to fill in around the edges, and will be using playing time in the spring and summer to answer big questions like, “What is this?” and “Who is that?”, but they’re not so far gone to count them all the way out. This isn’t a teardown/rebuild, it’s a brief restock/restructuring. You never know how far an intense hiccup of success in midsummer can send you hurtling toward a wild card spot. The focus will be on the future, but not the distant future—the farm system the Mets built up with their trades of Scherzer and Verlander were applauded across the industry and reinvigorated their minors. With the Mets there’s always a risk of them getting stuck in neutral.

The Brewers are enjoying their first period of sustained success in 40 years, having reached the playoffs five times since 2018. They won the NL Central by nine games in 2023 with a devastating bullpen and a core of young hitters on the upswing of their careers. They’re one of the few teams in MLB whose 2027 lineup will look a lot like their 2024 lineup.

Durability was everything for Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) and he’ll get the start here on opening day for the Crew. Perlata avoided the IL last year, bumped up velocity, and just roared following May/June scuffles. His 2nd-half control gains were confined to September, and overstated as suggested by xBB but his soaring K%, which was backed by his elite swing & miss rate looks real enough. Peralta’s poor HR luck says results could have been better and today, he’s a true steal against Quintana and the Mets. 

Sherwood

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