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 -110        -105     +100

Odds posted at 12:45 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Detroit +100 over Cleveland

7:10 PM EST. For 17 straight games and ending with a three-game set against Minnesota on June 2, we’ll be playing the Tigers daily. Detroit will be an underdog all three games in Tampa, then it’s 15 straight games against both Minnesota and Cleveland where the Tigers will be a dog in most of them and only a slight favorite at home in the others. This is game 4 of 17 in anticipation of Detroit winning more games than they lose over that span. Thus far, we are 1-2 in backing the Tigers. 

Here are today’s starting pitchers:

In six starts, Aaron Civale has struck out 27 batters in 25 innings. However, he has a 9,85 ERA because when hitters do make contact, boy oh boy, do they ever. Furthermore, his swing and miss rate of 10.5% doesn’t come close to supporting the amount of strikeouts he has. HR’s allowed continue to be a problem. Substandard velocity and a weak swing and miss rate leave him on the edge of the knife. Absent another trick (pinpoint control, groundball spike or anything else) he's a 5.50 ERA guy, plus or minus the error bars of hit%, strand% and HR/F rate. Even if we weren’t backing the Tigers daily, this one would have made our board 1000% for sure. 

Tarik Skubal (RHP - Det) has sick, sick, sick, sick stuff. He’s a future (maybe even this year) Cy Young award winner. With Improvements vR, walk rate trending down and velocity staying up, he's starting to turn raw stuff into pitchability. Skubal evenly priced against Civale is truly the bargain of the day. If price on Detroit goes up, don’t be afraid to spot -1½ runs.