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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

8:05 PM EST. Mike Minor is generating enough swings and misses with his change-up (21%) to keep an above-average swing and miss rate, as he's increasing his change-up usage. During his years in the rotation, his change-up and curveball are the two pitches that have consistently posted a 10% + swing and miss rate. Mike Minor is better than his 5.59 ERA suggests but he’s carrying a 41.8% hard-hit ball% with a steady pull rate and fly-ball tilt. His 12% hr/f adds more risk. Giving up more fly balls and plenty of hard contact versus righties has contributed to an ugly .868 opponent OPS. Minor's skills and xERA are similar to what they were when he was last in a rotation in 2014. Minor will provide some value when he’s being offered a price but allowing hard contact with his current fly-ball rate makes him too risky as the chalk. Aside from that, the Royals continue to return profits and we see no reason to jump off them now.

Eric Skoglund (LHP) started five games for the Royals last year where he had modest results but walked too many (14 strikeouts and 12 walks while facing 93 batters). This spring he showed more of his good Triple-A skills by striking out 11 of the 41 batters he faced and not issuing a single walk. In eight games started this year, Skoglund has a tidy BB/K split of 12/35 over 45 frames. The strikeout rate isn’t elite but he’s throwing strikes and he’ll face a Rangers’ nine that have the second-highest K% vs. LHP in the majors. We saw pedestrian lefty Danny Duffy slay this lineup last night. Skoglund’s 4.30 xERA is also nearly two runs lower than his actual ERA of 6.15, which suggests a correction to the good is forthcoming. Finally, the Royals continue to be disrespected by a market that is easily influenced by wins and losses and surface stats, which continue to provide us with opportunities just like this one. Win or lose, K.C. is once again the true value play based on the Rangers inability to hit lefties and K.C.’s elite ability to put the ball in play (the Royals own the lowest K% in the majors).

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