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Posted at 12:20 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Jake Arrieta was the Phillies big offseason signing after agreeing to a three-year, $75-million contract to anchor the rotation. Through four starts, Arrieta is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA, but while those surface stats look very appealing, the cracks that began to show in his game while still a member of the Cubs have crept into this season. Arrieta's strikeout rate has been on the decline the last five seasons, peaking at 9.5K’s/9 in 2014, but that number has fallen to just 6.57 in 2018. Compared to last season, Arrieta's K% is way down from 23.1% to 18.8%, while his walk rate is up. That is not a recipe for long-term success. Arrieta's first start as a Phillie came against these Marlins and he struggled going just four innings in a no-decision that resulted in a 6-3 loss for Philadelphia.

Dan Straily comes into this game after a stint on the disabled list and will make his first start of the season. Inflammation in his right forearm was the reason for the absence, but after striking out 12 batters over 13 innings in three rehab starts, he looks to be ready to step in and be the horse for the Marlins after he put in a team-leading 181.2 innings in 2017. Straily posted the highest swinging strike rate of any starter in the NL during August of last year (16%). It's a mark that suggested his 8.6 K's/9 that month should have been much higher. Given his big command growth versus lefties and his strikeout potential, Straily is on our radar despite the late start to his season. Although the Marlins sold off one of the best outfields in baseball, the two mashers the Fish still have in their lineup, Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto will not be intimidated with Arrieta on the mound after going 5-for -14 combined against the righty. Not only is Realmuto is one of the best hitting catchers in the league, but he's also a steady hand behind the plate and calls a great game. The Marlins are undersold in the market, but there is a ton of value in this scrappy club that most have left for dead. We will not hesitate to back them in their home park taking back a price like this against a Phillies team that is much better at home than it is on the road.

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