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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Utah -1½ +180 over Minnesota

9:00 PM EST. Minnesota is closing out a five-game road trip tonight in Salt Lake City, and it is doing it short-handed. Filip Gustavsson is on injured reserve, Brock Faber is out, and both Folignos are on injured reserve, so the Wild are asking Jesper Wallstedt, confirmed in net tonight, to hold up behind a patched-together lineup in the last game before they finally head home. Utah is the fresher side, at home, and the market still only asks -125 on the moneyline, which means the trip fatigue is not really priced into this number yet.

The even-strength picture backs the home side too. Utah owns a 61.81 xGF% at five-on-five against Minnesota's 58.00, so the Mammoth are the team controlling play when the game is at even strength. That is what makes the puck line playable here: laying a goal and a half at a plus price means Utah has to win by two, and with a tired, short-handed Minnesota team on the tail end of a long trip, the two-goal margin is the bet. The third period and the empty net are part of that bet, and the price pays you for taking them on.

The moneyline itself is no good at -125, so the -1½ at +180 is the vehicle. If Utah wins this game the way the spot and the five-on-five numbers suggest it should, it wins by two more often than this price implies, and that is where the value sits

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