San Jose @ Boston
Boston -1½ +132 over San Jose

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Boston -1½ +132 over San Jose 

7:00 PM EST. San Jose closes out a six-game road trip tonight in Boston, a trip that started back on October 15 in Nashville, and the Sharks' last game tells you everything about where their legs are. They beat Ottawa 6-2 on Thursday, which looks comfortable until you read the box score: the Senators outshot them 43-28, and Yaroslav Askarov had to make 41 saves to keep it from going sideways. That is a win that takes more out of a team than it gives back, and now San Jose walks into TD Garden two nights later, at the end of a trip, against the hottest home team in the East.

Boston is 8-2-1, 4-1 at home, and just shut out Nashville 6-0 on Thursday night. David Pastrnak has 16 points already, and Jeremy Swayman is running a 1.98 goals-against and a .928 save percentage. The honest counter is that Boston's 5-on-5 numbers are ordinary — 47.98% Corsi, 47.43% expected goals — which means the Bruins win on goaltending and finishing more than on process, and San Jose has real weapons in Macklin Celebrini and a power play clicking at 25.7%. But this fade is not a process argument. It is a schedule argument, and the schedule says the Sharks are playing their sixth game of a trip, their second in three nights, against a team that just blanked somebody in its own building.

The price rule forces the vehicle here, and the vehicle is the right one anyway. Boston's moneyline at -184 is not a number we play, so we take the puck line instead: Boston -1½ at +120, a plus price on a home favorite against a trip-weary team that just needed 41 saves to survive Ottawa. If Boston's goaltending holds the way it has all month, this one doesn't need to be close late

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Our Pick

Boston -1½ +132 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.64)

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St. Louis +130 over Carolina