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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Jersey -½ +135 over Colorado

7:00 PM EST. (Regulation only). Colorado played last night in Philadelphia, lost 3-2, got on a bus to Newark, and plays again tonight on the tail end of a back-to-back. New Jersey hasn't played since Saturday. That rest gap is the starting point, but the bigger story is that the market has priced this game as a coin flip — both sides around -110 — and one of these teams is dominating games at 5-on-5 while the other one is surviving them.

The Devils are first in the league at 5-on-5 in Corsi (62.45%), expected goals (64.26%), scoring chances (63.59%) and high-danger chances (62.42%). They tilt the ice every single night. What they haven't done is finish: a 48.48% goals share and a 38.89% high-danger goals share say pucks that should be going in aren't, which is exactly the kind of thing that corrects itself without warning. Colorado is the mirror image — a 65.31% goals share built on a 49.44% expected goals share and a 30.00% high-danger shooting percentage. The Avalanche are cashing chances they haven't earned, with MacKinnon (six goals, 17 points) doing most of the cashing.

Tonight, that finishing has to show up on tired legs, in the second half of a back-to-back, with backup Scott Wedgewood confirmed in net, against a rested team that lives in the offensive zone. New Jersey's own goaltending has been ordinary, and that's baked into the price — which is why we're here. Laying a puck and a half with the league's best process team at +205 against a team playing its second game in two nights is exactly the kind of swing worth taking.

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