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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota -1½ +136 over Columbus

6:00 PM EST. We do not lay -183 on hockey games, so the moneyline was never an option here — but laying a goal and a half at +136 absolutely is, because this is the kind of spot that produces margin. Columbus played at home last night, needed overtime to beat the Rangers 1-0, and then got on a plane to Minnesota. That is the tail end of a back-to-back with travel attached, against a Wild team that has not played since Thursday. Rest spots do not get much cleaner than this one: the Blue Jackets spent last night grinding out a scoreless game into overtime, and less than 24 hours later they are in St. Paul against a rested team that has been sitting home waiting for them. Tired teams do not lose 2-1 in spots like this — they hang around for a while and then the legs go in the third period.

Minnesota is 5-2-1, unbeaten at home, and the matchup edges stack up exactly where margin comes from. Jesper Wallstedt is confirmed for the Wild, and all he has done is go 5-1-1 with a 2.13 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage. Columbus has been leaking goals all month no matter who is in net — allowing 4.20 goals per game with a penalty kill at 61.1% — and Minnesota's power play, clicking at 33.3%, gets to take aim at that penalty kill all night. If it is Cam Talbot in the Columbus net behind those tired legs, his .822 save percentage speaks for itself. Kirill Kaprizov (nine goals) missed Saturday's practice with an illness but is expected to play, and Quinn Hughes has 12 points from the blue line — Minnesota's best players are rested and at home against a team running on fumes, which is exactly the recipe for a late empty-netter to put a two-goal cushion on the board.

The honesty paragraph: Minnesota is missing real depth — Jared Spurgeon, both Folignos, Olli Maatta and Nico Sturm are all out, and Filip Gustavsson's hip injury is what put Wallstedt in this spot in the first place. Columbus's 5-on-5 numbers are not the disaster their goals-against says, either, sitting right around break-even in expected goals, and asking any hockey team to win by two is a real ask — one-goal games are the most common result in this league. That is why the ticket pays +136 and only needs to cash about 42% of the time. If the Jackets were rested, this would be a pass at any price. They played overtime in another city last night. A confirmed .921 goalie, home ice, two extra days of rest, a power play against a 61.1% penalty kill, and an opponent whose legs should be gone by the third period — that is how two-goal wins happen.

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