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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +130 over Ottawa  

7:00 PM EST. Ottawa finally gets to play in front of its home fans tonight, and there will undoubtedly be plenty of excitement surrounding the Senators' home opener. The building will be packed, the introductions will be elaborate, and everyone will be expecting Ottawa to put on a show. That's wonderful. We'll take Philadelphia at +130.

The Senators opened their season with three consecutive road games, and now they return home for the first time. That brings an entirely different set of circumstances. There's the anticipation surrounding the home opener, the media attention, family and friends looking for tickets, and all the other distractions that come with the first home game of a new season.

None of that means Ottawa can't play well. It simply means this isn't an ordinary home game, particularly when you consider the schedule.

Ottawa is playing its fourth game in six days and its second in three days. The Senators have been traveling and playing while Philadelphia has enjoyed two full days off. That's a meaningful difference in preparation and recovery time, especially this early in the season.

There's also a perception issue here. Philadelphia is 0-2-2, and the Flyers haven't given anyone much reason to get excited. They opened the season with an embarrassing 7-0 loss to Pittsburgh and have yet to record their first victory. Their stock is about as low as it can get after four games but that's precisely why we're getting +130.

The Flyers have already taken New Jersey and Carolina to overtime, so it's not as though they've been completely outclassed every night. Their record is ugly, but there have been competitive stretches that are being overlooked because the results haven't followed.

Ottawa, meanwhile, returns home with the expectation of putting on a show for its fans. The Senators are supposed to respond, the crowd is supposed to provide an advantage, and the market is asking bettors to pay for all that anticipation. We're much more interested in the circumstances surrounding the game than the pregame ceremonies.

Philadelphia has had additional rest, Ottawa has been traveling and playing, and the Senators now have to deal with everything that accompanies a home opener. That's not necessarily a recipe for disaster, but it certainly isn't a situation that warrants laying a substantial price. The Flyers' poor start has created the value, while Ottawa's schedule provides the situational advantage. Philadelphia is going to win a hockey game eventually, and this looks like an attractive opportunity to buy the Flyers before the market starts giving them any credit.

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