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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Seattle +165 over Edmonton

7:00 PM EST. The Oilers are going to win plenty of games. There’s no question about that. They have enormous firepower, the best player in the league and perhaps the best offensive unit in hockey. But they cannot prevent goals, and when you’re being asked to lay prices like this, that becomes a massive problem.

Edmonton is coming off two games against Vancouver in which it allowed 13 goals. That’s 13 goals surrendered to a Canucks team that entered the season with one of the lower projections in the league. The Oilers lost the first game and then won the second 9-7, but even that victory exposed exactly what has plagued this team for years. Edmonton led 8-3 before Vancouver scored three quick goals early in the third period to make it 8-6. An 8-3 lead against Vancouver turned into a sweat. That’s not the profile of a team we’re interested in laying significant lumber with.

The problem isn't difficult to identify. Edmonton can score with anybody, but the goaltending remains questionable and the Oilers continue to give opponents far too many opportunities to get back into games. Last season they posted an .879 team save percentage, and nothing we've seen so far suggests that weakness has disappeared. Tristan Jarry may provide a different look in net, but changing the nameplate doesn't automatically solve a problem that has followed this team for years. Edmonton can dominate stretches of a game and still leave the door wide open.

Meanwhile, Seattle comes in feeling pretty damn good after going into Calgary and burying the Flames 6-1. Calgary isn't projected to be a powerhouse either, but that's precisely the point. Seattle did what a good team is supposed to do against an inferior opponent. The Kraken barely broke a sweat. Edmonton just played two track meets against Vancouver and surrendered 13 goals in the process.

Joey Daccord also gives Seattle a goaltending component we're much more comfortable backing at this price. The Kraken don't have to match Edmonton's offensive talent player for player. They need competent goaltending, responsible hockey and enough offense to exploit an Edmonton team that has shown absolutely no ability to keep the puck out of its own net.

And that's really the entire wager. Why in the world should Edmonton be priced like this? Because they have Connor McDavid? Because they can score? Great. They’re also a dumpster fire defensively, just surrendered 13 goals in two games to Vancouver and nearly turned an 8-3 lead into a disaster. Meanwhile, Seattle is a solid, undervalued team that just walked into Calgary and buried the Flames 6-1. This price is based far more on the names wearing Edmonton sweaters than what these two teams have actually shown us. At +165, the value is unquestionably on the Kraken.

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