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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montreal +175 over Carolina 

NHL play Offs Game 2

Montreal Leads the Series 1-0

7:00 PM EST. The betting market continues to treat Carolina like an unstoppable force because of its underlying numbers, its puck possession metrics and its regular-season dominance. We've seen this movie before. Every year it's the same story.

Carolina controls play. Carolina outshoots opponents. Carolina wins the expected-goals battle. Carolina dominates territorial possession. Then eventually the playoffs expose the same weakness that has followed this organization for years. Goaltending.

For much of this postseason, Frederik Andersen has been living a charmed life. The Hurricanes faced opponents that struggled to finish chances and Andersen's numbers looked fantastic as a result. But Game 1 was a reminder of what many have been saying all along. Carolina's goaltending question never disappeared. It simply hadn't been tested yet. Now it has.

The reality is that Andersen gives opponents a chance every night. He always has. When playoff pressure increases and games become tighter, elite teams need elite goaltending. Carolina has never consistently received it. That's why despite years of excellent puck-possession numbers, strong regular seasons and favorable analytics, the Hurricanes continue falling short when the stakes get highest.

Why should this year be any different? Montreal does not need to outplay Carolina to win this series. In fact, they probably won't. Carolina will likely have more shot attempts. They'll likely spend more time in the offensive zone. They'll probably control long stretches of play. So what?

Hockey isn't basketball. The better team doesn't automatically win because it controls possession. More than any major sport, hockey produces outcomes that don't always reflect territorial dominance. Teams get outshot, outchanced and outplayed every night and still win games. That's the nature of the sport.

Montreal isn't even being dominated. The Canadiens played a solid Game 1, capitalized on their opportunities and once again demonstrated that they possess enough speed and finishing ability to punish mistakes. More importantly, they've already proven they can beat Carolina. At some point bettors have to stop dismissing results simply because the spreadsheets prefer the Hurricanes.

This wager isn't based on Montreal being the superior team. It's based on price.The number attached to the Canadiens remains absurd for a team that has repeatedly shown it can win this matchup. Carolina's strengths are obvious and fully reflected in the market. Its weakness in goal is not. As long as oddsmakers continue pricing the Hurricanes like an elite playoff team while ignoring the question mark between the pipes, we'll gladly take back a generous price on a live underdog.

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