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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montreal +105 over Buffalo 

NHL Playoff Series Game 7

Series Tied 3-3

7:30 PM EST. Montreal has quietly become one of the NHL’s most reliable bounce-back teams and this sets up as another spot where the market may be overvaluing Buffalo after its latest performance. The Canadiens have won eight straight games as road underdogs coming off a loss and they continue to thrive in uncomfortable spots because they skate with pace, pressure the puck and generate offense in transition. This group has also covered the puck line in 17 consecutive games as an underdog following a defeat, which speaks to how competitive they remain regardless of opponent or venue. Montreal’s ability to erase deficits has been a major strength all season, as they are one of only two teams in the league with 30-plus wins when tied or trailing after the opening period. That resilience matters against a Buffalo team that has struggled to close games as a favorite.

Buffalo’s numbers on the surface look impressive offensively, ranking among the league leaders in goals scored while also creating plenty of chances at even strength. The problem is the Sabres continue to give almost as much back the other way. They remain one of the few teams in hockey sitting top-10 in both goals scored and goals allowed, which perfectly captures their high-event style. As home favorites, that volatility becomes dangerous, especially against divisional opponents. The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in 11 of their last 12 home games laying a price and they have dropped four of their last five in this role against Atlantic Division teams. Even when Buffalo starts well, the structure tends to break down as games progress, shown by repeated second-period collapses against Eastern Conference competition.

Montreal also carries the edge in net tonight. Jakub Dobes has provided calm, steady goaltending with a save percentage north of .900 and a strong quality-start rate, while Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been far less trustworthy in pressure spots despite decent season-long totals. Offensively, the Canadiens continue to get elite playmaking from Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson, giving them multiple creators capable of exploiting Buffalo’s defensive gaps. This game feels like a classic zig-zag spot and an overreaction to how Buffalo looked in its previous outing. We’ll stick with the more reliable side in the underdog role and back Montreal to answer right back.

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