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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montreal Canadiens -110 vs Anaheim

9:00 PM EST We’re going to take Montreal -110 over Anaheim, and the reason is simple: the market is overreacting to the Ducks’ recent surge and the splash they made at the trade deadline by acquiring defenseman John Carlson. Trades like that tend to create excitement and inflate a team’s perceived value, and oddsmakers know it. Anaheim’s stock has skyrocketed because of the trade and their recent run, but when you peel back the numbers, the Ducks simply haven’t proven they can consistently compete with strong teams.

The Canadiens, on the other hand, have. Montreal has played the 10th toughest schedule in the NHL and they’ve held their own against elite competition. The Habs are 11-9 against top-10 teams and 18-16 against top-16 teams, while Anaheim is just 5-13 against top-10 opposition and 15-16 against top-16 clubs. That’s a significant difference. Montreal has shown repeatedly that they can skate with the league’s best teams, while Anaheim has mostly beaten up on weaker opponents or squeaked out close wins.

Montreal is also coming off a 7-5 loss in San Jose, but that result is misleading. The Canadiens dominated the game territorially and outshot the Sharks 38-27, but some soft goals from their goaltender turned what should have been a win into a loss. If you look at their recent performances instead of just the final scores, Montreal has been playing excellent hockey. Since the All-Star break they’ve recorded impressive wins including 7-3 over Colorado, 6-2 over Washington, 5-1 over Winnipeg, and 4-2 over the red-hot Sabres. This team has been driving play, controlling possession, and producing offense against quality opponents.

Meanwhile Anaheim’s current hot streak deserves credit, but it’s also been fueled by a lot of one-goal games and overtime wins. They beat Calgary in overtime, Winnipeg in a shootout, Vegas by one goal, Edmonton by one goal after trailing 4-1 in the third period, and Los Angeles in overtime. Those types of games often come down to puck luck more than dominance. Earlier in the season that same luck went the other way when Anaheim lost nine straight and 11 of 12. When a team’s results swing that wildly, it usually means the underlying performance hasn’t changed nearly as much as the standings suggest.

Anaheim’s stock is suddenly sky-high, yet oddsmakers only made this game a near pick’em against a Montreal team that has stronger schedule metrics, better possession numbers, and far more proven results against elite competition. At this price, we’ll gladly back the more reliable side.

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