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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Jersey -½ +120 over Toronto 

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. We’re all over the Devils at home against a Toronto Maple Leafs' team that currently looks like a club completely lost at sea. Since the beginning of January — a 20-game span — the Leafs rank 30th out of 32 NHL teams in offensive-zone puck possession during 5-on-5 play. Only Chicago and Seattle are worse. Let that sink in. Even the Vancouver Canucks — widely considered the worst team in hockey this season — are generating more offensive possession time than Toronto. That’s a catastrophic metric for a team supposedly built around elite offensive talent.

Things have only gotten worse since the Olympic break. The Leafs were embarrassed by Tampa Bay, then humiliated by Ottawa, and followed that up with another dreadful effort against Philadelphia where they were being outshot 17-8 midway through the second period at home. Yes, they managed to scrape out a point after tying the game late in the third, but the overall performance was another example of a team that looks disconnected, fragile, and completely lacking confidence. Even the players admit it. Auston Matthews said the team needs more pride. Morgan Rielly called their effort “confusing and unacceptable.” Jake McCabe summed it up even more bluntly: “We s—t the bed.” That’s not media criticism — that’s coming directly from inside the Leafs dressing room.

Meanwhile, the Devils are quietly playing strong hockey. Over that same 20-game stretch New Jersey ranks 9th in the NHL in offensive-zone puck possession during 5-on-5 play, a massive gap compared to Toronto. Yes, the Leafs are getting some betting support because the Devils are playing their third game in four nights and the tail end of a back-to-back, but we don’t care. New Jersey has come out of the break with two straight wins, including a 3-1 victory in St. Louis and a dominant 5-1 destruction of Florida last night. They now continue a seven-game homestand, riding momentum and confidence, while Toronto arrives completely disorganized and searching for answers. At plus money in regulation, fading a team that doesn’t know whether it’s coming or going is a bet we’ll make every time.

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