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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Nashville +110 over Minnesota

8:00 PM EST At first glance, Minnesota’s recent winning streak makes them look like the obvious side, but that perception is exactly what’s creating value on Nashville. The Wild are being priced as the more reliable team largely because they’ve closed out close games lately, yet those results have come with defensive cracks that are easy to overlook when wins pile up. Minnesota has allowed plenty of chances during this stretch and has relied on timely goals and special teams to bail them out. When a team is being asked to win again at a premium price despite playing multiple overtime games and leaning heavily on top-end talent, the risk increases — especially against a divisional opponent that’s already proven it can push them to the brink.

Nashville’s recent results may look chaotic, but there’s hidden upside in how they’re winning. The Predators have shown resilience, depth scoring, and the ability to flip momentum quickly, all of which matter in tightly lined divisional games. Their offense isn’t dependent on a single line, and that balance becomes valuable when facing a Minnesota team that tends to shorten its bench in competitive spots. While Nashville’s defensive numbers haven’t been clean, they’ve been far more dangerous offensively than the market credits, especially in high-tempo games where structure breaks down. In matchups like this, where familiarity breeds close finishes, the underdog’s ability to generate bursts of offense is often the difference.

From a betting perspective, this comes down to price versus probability. These teams have already played two overtime games against each other this season, which strongly suggests the gap between them is minimal. When the true difference is that thin, taking plus money with the home underdog is the sharper long-term approach. Minnesota may win this game — but not often enough to justify the number they’re laying. Nashville doesn’t need to control the game from start to finish; they just need to stay within one goal and capitalize on a few key moments. That combination of matchup familiarity, offensive depth, and market overconfidence makes Nashville to win outright a value play rather than a trend chase.

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