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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Carolina -½ over N.Y. Rangers

4:05 PM EST. Regulation only. The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy as the NHL's top point getters. They are the #1 overall seed in these Stanley Cup playoffs and they play the first two games of this Eastern Conference semi-final series at home at Madison Square Garden. Yet, they are not only underdogs here in Game 1, but they are also underdogs to win this series. Why?

The Rangers dominated the 82-game regular season and they punched their ticket to these playoffs at the end of March. While New York ranked in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed, the underlying numbers that focus on their 5-on-5 play tell a much different story about the Rangers than the one the talking heads will sell you. You see, the Rangers ranked 19th in puck possession, 22nd in expected goals, and 21st in high-danger scoring chances during the season.

By contrast, the Hurricanes, as usual, were analytics darlings, ranking 1st in puck possession, 2nd in expected goals, and 2nd in high-danger scoring chances. There is a damn good reason the Hurricanes are getting so much respect from oddsmakers here, and it’s because they are an elite team, while the Rangers are not. If the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin steals a game between the pipes, so be it, but that is the only area in which the Rangers have the edge. We cannot predict the outcomes of these games, but we can use the tools at our disposal to mine for value and determine who is likely to get their chances. In this game, that team is the Hurricanes, and they are primed to expose the Rangers for the frauds they are.

Sherwood

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