Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +114 BET365   +110 Sportsinteraction   +110 888Sport  +110

Game 1

Toronto +110 over Boston

7:00 PM EST. Groundhog Day (the movie) tells the story of a cynical television weatherman covering the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, who becomes trapped in a time loop, forcing him to relive February 2 repeatedly. Since its release in 1993, the film also had a significant effect on popular culture: the term Groundhog Day, meaning a monotonous, unpleasant, and repetitive situation, has become part of the English lexicon.

Toronto Maple Leafs’ fans can relate. Unlike years past when Leafs’ fans were optimistic, there is a different feel this year, a feel of doom once again because Leafs’ fans can’t take the abuse and disappointment any longer. Like a person with a broken heart, they don’t want to get emotionally involved again because “Groundhog Day” this time of year has become inevitable. That feeling of doom is etched in their brains and it isn’t going away. The market is so used to Toronto losing in the first round or always losing to the Bruins that the oddsmakers were forced to make Boston a favorite to beat the Leafs again and that, friends, is absurd.

Boston may indeed get lucky and beat Toronto but the Maple Leafs are so superior in every way that we would not be a bit surprised to see Boston go down in four or five games.

Don’t take our word for it just because we write it. Instead, let’s look at what matters most in determining outcomes. In terms of puck possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play, the Boston Bruins ranked 24th in the NHL this season, behind Columbus, Arizona and Ottawa to name a few. The Leafs ranked 15 positions higher than the Bruins. MASSIVE advantage to Toronto but all this market sees is wins and losses. We’ll reiterate that hockey is the most luck-driven outcome sport in the world and that’s why some of the records are so misleading. Boston does not come close to Toronto in terms of talent.

Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi have combined with Austin Matthews to make that unit elite. That's given coach Sheldon Keefe the opportunity to spread out some of the other top skaters -- like Mitch Marner and William Nylander, so Toronto isn't as vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of its star performers. The Leafs are deeply talented. They were felled by a lack of postseason scoring in the past, but they've got that covered now. Let’s not forget that with a better team last year than this year, Boston lost in the first round.

Perhaps Boston gets luckier than Toronto and perhaps Boston gets outstanding goaltending while Toronto does not. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict puck luck but one thing we can almost guarantee is that Toronto will outplay Boston by a large degree, which is going with the best of it and hoping it works out well. The Leafs should not be an underdog to this very average and overpriced opponent.

Toronto to win the CUP at 15-1 odds is also insane value when you consider all the teams with shorter odds.

Sherwood

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