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Western Conference Quarterfinal
Game 7 Los Angeles +183 over Edmonton
10:00 PM EST. We wrote prior to Game 6 that if the Kings were to fall at home, that we were coming right back on them here for Game 7.
Perhaps we are biased after watching all of what these two teams have put on the line through six games, but how can the Oilers be priced in this range with this series knotted up at 3-3? The Kings have not been outclassed, nor are they out of their element against the “mighty” Oilers.
The cliche goes, “You can throw out the records,” in a deciding Game 7, which is to suggest that the standings, market perception and even the odds should be cast aside, as anything goes when it's all on the line. That is true, but it’s true of nearly any hockey game. In these highly, luck driven outcomes, we must play the value. One could argue our mantra of not predicting games and rather finding the value and letting the chips fall where they may was tailor made for a Game 7.
The Kings are an absurd price here as the betting underdog. Seriously. L.A. has outshot the Oilers in three of the last four games, including their 5-4 overtime win in Game 5 (43-28). Let us not forget that the Kings had a two-goal lead in that one with just under nine minutes to go. Point is, L.A. is just as capable as going to the front as the Oilers are.
The good news for the Kings’ very real shot of advancing to the second round is that the whistles will no doubt be swallowed for the deciding game. Los Angeles has been the lesser team at five-on-five for the series, but the Kings have at least kept it tight. A special teams battle of any kind and the Kings’ chances would drop dramatically, as they’ve been outscored 9-3 there. No whistles means a better shot at an upset.
There is not a planet in this solar system where we would spot an inflated price like this with the Oilers. They could play this game in Wayne Gretzky’s backyard with Walter as the referee and we still would not bite. All the pressure is on the Oilers here. The Kings have been playing with house money since the playoffs began. If you’d asked the Kings to a man if they’d take their chances in a win or go home Game 7, we have little doubt they'd have signed up instantly. What about the Oilers? We think not.
Los Angeles +183 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.66)