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Posted at 4:30 PM EST. 

BUFFALO -½ +210 over Washington

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. Unprecedented times in the NHL, as teams will stay in cities on back-to-back nights and it’s something we have never experienced other than in the playoffs with a day off between games. Last night, the Caps led gate to wire and knocked off the Sabres 6-4. Washington was one of nine favorites that won yesterday, as the chalk went 9-1. Today, we should see a bit of a correction but nonetheless, the Sabres were one underdog that did not get outplayed.

The Sabres held an edge in Expected Goals for Percentage (XGF%) and that’s something worth looking at. 

Expected goals is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending. Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

The chart from last night shows all three periods with the Sabres on the top and the Caps on the bottom. The only reason the Sabres lost last night is because Carter Hutton produced a save % of .815. Tonight the Sabres will go with Linus Ullmark. 

Buffalo’s forward corps looks a lot more powerful following the acquisitions of Taylor Hall, Eric Staal and Cody Eakin. In addition, the Sabres’ blue line keeps getting better as the young talents of Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju continue to develop. With the team in front of him improving, Ullmark should have an easier time keeping the puck out of the net and registering wins. Expect him to build upon a strong 2019-20 campaign that saw him win 17 of his 34 games, posting a .915 save percentage and 2.69 GAA in the process. Buffalo allowed just 27 shots on net last night.

Washington looked as ordinary last night as they did in the second half of last year. That means they’re beatable with weak goaltending. The Caps used Ilya Samsonov last night and he was well below average. Tonight, they might use one of three goaltenders and none of them are reliable. Great price on a live dog to win in regulation here.

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