Today's Free Picks for
Posted on April 15th before Game 3
Updated Series bet.
9:40 PM EST. There is value all over the place here no matter how you play it. One could choose to play Dallas -120 to win outright tonight but we like the +105 just as much or better. The general consensus in this market is that Nashville is the superior team but there is no justification to that hypothesis whatsoever other than Nashville being a #2 seed (overall) and Dallas being a #7 seed. We cannot overstate how ridiculous that is. Did you know that Nashville beat Dallas by just seven points (100-93) in the overall standings? Did you know that Nashville had a measly four more wins than Dallas over an 82-game schedule? Did you know that Dallas had more wins and points in the second half than Nashville? In other words, the seedings mean jack but the Preds have tons more market credibility than Dallas and that opens up the door to grab the better team at a hugely deflated price. If Nashville was -165 in Nashville, shouldn’t Dallas be the same in Dallas? Of course they should be but if the books made Dallas a -165 favorite here, they would expose themselves to getting buried so they have to put out a line that will “balance the books”. We are the beneficiaries of that.
The numbers under the hood also suggest that this is one of the closest matchups in the first round but it has never been priced like it. Dallas had a clear advantage in Game 1 while Nashville responded with a slight edge in Game 2. The Series is now tied 1-1 going back to Dallas, where the Stars went 24-14-3 during the regular season. In Game 1, Dallas controlled much of the final two periods of play, scoring three unanswered goals and finishing the game with a 3-2 win. Their second power play unit was dominant, the defense limited Nashville’s chances, Ben Bishop put on a solid performance and Mats Zuccarello scored the game-winning goal. However, the Stars had to wait for the rest of the bracket to catch up so it was two days off before they would play again in Nashville and that was not to their benefit. In any case, the Stars are back home and there is nothing the Preds do that is superior to what the Stars do. Truly, this is about value and no matter how you play it, if you take Dallas, you’re 100% going with the best of it, as they should at least be the same price as Nashville was when it was at home.
Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
DALLAS +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)