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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

9:05 PM EST. OT included. In a very real sense, the Coyotes’ playoff hopes could sink or swim depending on the outcome of this game. With just five games left in the regular season, and based on the league’s tie-breaking procedures, a win would put the Coyotes in the driver’s seat as they head toward their first playoff berth in seven years. A loss would stack the odds high against Arizona.

There is one playoff spot up for grabs. Both the Avalanche and Coyotes have played 77 games, which leaves them each with five remaining in the regular season. After the two meet head-to-head here, they will each have four games remaining. The Avalanche currently own 83 points while the Coyotes own 81. The Minnesota Wild are next in line with 79, and the Chicago Blackhawks, who play their 77th game on Thursday, are hanging by a thread with 76.

Now, if two teams finish with the same number of points and are effectively tied for a playoff spot, the league’s tie-breaking procedures kick in. Since teams are rewarded with two points for a victory of any kind, one point for an overtime or shootout loss and no points for a regulation loss, there is a very real scenario where the Coyotes and Avalanche could find themselves tied in points. In fact, should the Coyotes register a regulation victory over the Avalanche on Friday, the teams will be tied in points with four games to play but Arizona holds the first tiebreaker (the first tiebreaker is a figure called “ROW,” which is a column in the league standings referring to the number of regulation and overtime wins secured by a team). That’s the setup for this game and is without question the biggest game of the year for both teams and the biggest game for the ‘Yotes in years. We’re not going to try and predict the outcome, instead, we’ll lean heavily on the value.

Most of the betting world was on Vegas to beat Colorado on Wednesday night. You see, the price on the Knights appeared short (in the -115 range) because Colorado was without Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. We don’t have to tell you what happened next but that result has created a nice zig-zag opportunity here. All those folks that ripped up their Vegas tickets after the the Avs went gate to wire over the Knights will now switch to Colorado. The Avs get Landeskog back tonight, thus if they can beat Vegas without Landeskog, surely they can beat Arizona with him. That might be true but the premium one will pay to get behind the Avs here is far too rich. Arizona has a great chance of winning.

What you may or may not know is that Derek Stepan returned for the Coyotes last weekend and he’s a major part of that team that does everything. Arizona has lost four of their last five but they outchanced everyone they played over that span with the exception of the Islanders. They outchanced Tampa Bay (30-24), Florida, the Devils and Chicago last game but have just one victory to show for it. The ‘Yotes may not win here but we’re guaranteed to get a strong effort and they can absolutely skate nose to nose with the Avs. The price on Arizona here is simply way out of line and therefore we must play it.

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