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Posted at 11:15 AM EST

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. The Capitals have won six in a row but those six wins came against the Rangers x2, Philadelphia, Ottawa, the suddenly reeling Islanders and New Jersey. The market is not putting a lot of weight on those wins but let’s not ignore that the Capitals are scoring a bunch of goals again and that their possession numbers have soared up the rankings over the past five weeks. Washington has went from 26th in Corsi For % to 12th over their past 20 games, which is the biggest increase among all teams over that span.

Let’s completely forget about results and focus in on the only thing that matters --- value. The Capitals are a -130 favorite today (at the time of this writing), which makes no sense whatsoever when you consider that the Jets went into Carolina on Friday and were taking back +155. The results (an 8-1 Winnipeg win) matters not. The point is that Winnipeg is now getting far too much credit for that luck-driven explosion on Friday. Both teams fired away 29 shots on net and everything else about that game was also even. It just so happened that Carolina’s goaltender couldn’t stop a puck and the result was a dominating win on paper.

Truth is, oddsmakers had it right when they made the Jets a big underdog in Carolina. Winnipeg has six wins over their past 15 games and didn’t deserve to win most of them. In fact, since February 1, a span of 18 games, Winnipeg ranks dead last in the NHL in Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Both offensively and defensively, Winnipeg’s rankings have been sinking for weeks. The Jets are still without three starting defensemen, as Dustin Byfuglien, Joe Morrow and Josh Morrissey remain on the rack. Furthermore, the Jets are having the same issues that have haunted this team for years, which is discipline. That does not bode well against the Capitals. Winnipeg can’t stay out of the box and they’re paying for it. They recently took seven minors in a game against Ottawa and then six the next game against Colorado. They continue to give up PP goals almost every game and again, that’s a death sentence against Washington’s potent power-play. We also like that Winnipeg concludes a four-game trip here and the last game of a trip usually brings out the worst effort. Coming off a satisfying 8-1 win in Carolina and winners in three of their last four, Winnipeg’s poor play is not reflected in those results and now we’re the beneficiaries of a short priced favorite.

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