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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. Before we get into the selections for Saturday, we wanted to address a Twitter comment we received. We rarely pay attention to anything that’s not constructive but this one was interesting. Here is the Tweet:

What’s interesting is that this Twitter user mentions “his picks” and that we have lost 11 of 12. What we especially like about the entire tweet is that he is a reflection of the “market”, that values results over performance, which continues to provide us with opportunities. You see, we don’t make “picks”. We play value and if that value wins, we win and if it loses, we lose. For instance, last Saturday, we jumped all over Montreal as a +170 underdog against Toronto. Montreal jumped out to a 3-0 lead but lost after Toronto’s extremely fluky 4th goal to tie it. Just because one plays value, doesn’t mean it’s going to win. We are 17 games under .500 in OT/SO’s this year. One OT loss on a +160 underdog is a swing of 5.2 units. Now times that by 17.

In the NFL this past year, we went 81-57 (+64 units). In 2017 in the NFL, we went 56-55 (+19 units). In 2016 in the NFL, we lost 51 units after going 51-73. In baseball last year, we won 74 units. In baseball in 2016, we lost 50 units. In between, we won 46 units in 2017. In college hoops, we were stuck 10 units in January. After February, we are up 14 units after a 21 unit surge. We point this out because the NHL is exactly the same. Does this dude think we’re good in the NFL and other sports but not NHL? In 14 seasons of posting NHL plays, we have eight winning seasons and six losing ones. Does that mean we were better for those seasons and worse for this one? You see how ludicrous that thinking is? Nothing has changed. We have no idea how the puck is going to bounce or which goaltenders are going to stand on their head or which will have a bad game. In the NFL this past year, the "in-game variance" bounced our way. In the NHL it has not. They are all the same from NHL to NFL to MLB in that they all carry a high degree of in-game variance

Our approach is the same. Find value in the number and play it. Period. Nobody can predict or “pick” games. If you try to, you’ll get murdered. We’re having a rotten year in the NHL but it’s not because we “can’t” pick a winner. We’re not trying to. We’re digging deep for value every day and we’re not going to sway from that strategy ever. We’ve been posting plays on this forum for 14 years and have had two losing seasons because we play VALUE only while looking for good situational spots too.

We actually like the above Tweet because it confirms that the writer or tweet is a reflection of the market. Results matter more than anything and that applies to teams also. It is also the reason why we get such great prices on undervalued teams almost every single day in every sport. Now onto today:

The Hurricanes are not but should be one of the favorites to win the Cup but here we are in early March and they are still considered to be a “second tier” team behind the likes of the Sharks, Bruins, Maple Leafs and Lightning. Even the Jackets, Canadiens, Blues, Golden Knights, Islanders, Preds and Capitals are a smaller price to win the Cup than these Hurricanes. Does anyone even understand how ludicrous that is? Carolina is coming off a 5-2 win over the Blues last night and will play back-to-back games here but so what. This team can smell the playoffs, they’re energized from winning so often but they are not even close to getting the same respect as the other top teams in the NHL. We have to continue to try and take advantage.

Since the beginning of the new year, Carolina, once considered one of the most offensively inconsistent and at times inept organizations in the league, has boasted the best attack in the NHL. The Hurricanes’ 98 goals are the most of any club since the start of January, and the contributions have come from all throughout the lineup with Carolina’s dynamic duo of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen leading the way. Combined, the Hurricanes’ one-two punch has accounted for 20 goals and 61 points over the past two months, but others — including Justin Williams, Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton and Jaccob Slavin — have played their parts to perfection. That’s not to mention that mid-season acquisition Nino Niederreiter has flourished since his move to Carolina.

The defensive end is just as good. Carolina’s goal differential since New Year’s Day? An outstanding plus-34. That’s also tops in the league and while the 98 goals for helps lay the foundation, the Hurricanes have managed to tilt the scoreboard as often as they have thanks to a mere 64 goals against over the past two months. The Hurricanes rank first on the season in 5-on-5 Corsi percentage (55.2) and shots percentage (55.2), while placing second in scoring chance percentage (54.6) and fourth in high-danger chance percentage (54.8). They’ve maintained similar percentages over the past two months while maintaining their standing as one of the most dogged possession clubs in the NHL.

The Panthers can be tough but this is a difficult spot for them, as they return home from a trip through Colorado, Arizona and Vegas respectively. All three games went to OT so chances are great that this one won’t. We have mentioned or discussed the “Vegas hangover” in the past and it’s a real thing, especially for Eastern Conference teams that only get there once a year. The Panthers have surrendered 46, 40 and 40 shots on net the past three games and will now play the toughest puck possession team in the NHL and they’ll do so in this unfavorable spot.

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