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Posted at 3:10 PM EST.

10:35 PM EST. Regulation only. On Tuesday night, we went 1-3 in the NHL and one of those losses was Minnesota -½ to beat Philadelphia. The Flyers won 5-4 but the Wild had a 29-13 edge in scoring chances, had a 3-1 lead after one period, badly outplayed the Flyers but the final score does not care. That was not a unique game, instead it was just another misleading result in a sport that is incredibly luck-driven. The point is that we dug down and found a great spot to fade the Flyers and we trust the same thing is on tap here. If the Capitals get lucky and beat us, so be it but rest assured that San Jose will dominate this game.

The market is pretty much in agreement that the Oilers, Ducks and Kings are a mess but we’ll keep insisting that the Caps are the biggest mess in the East. That the Caps are 31-19-7 is further proof of just how luck driven this sport is. Washington has won three of its last four with the victories coming over Vancouver, Colorado and Los Angeles, not exactly the cream of the crop. Two of those wins were by a goal and one went into OT. The other victory was a 6-4 one over the Kings. Prior to those unimpressive wins, all at home by the way, Washington lost 5-4 to Florida and allowed 40 (!) scoring chances. They also have a 1-0 loss to the Bruins recently in which they were outshot, 39-24 and allowed 24 scoring chances against during five-on-five play. In its last game, Washington was outchanced 23-9 by the Jackets and lost 3-0. Since January 1, a span of 19 games, Washington ranks dead last in both High Danger Scoring Chances Against and overall Scoring Chances Against while the Sharkies are the best five-on-five team in the NHL and have been the entire year.

We repeat, the Sharks will dominate this game and probably will do so by a wide margin. If we get unlucky again, oh well. You might want to spot 1½-pucks with the Sharks in some money-line parlays too.

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