Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:35 PM EST.
9:35 PM EST. One could play Colorado at the bargain price of -122 with OT included but when we can avoid the extreme luck of an OT result and take back a price instead, we’re going after it like we always do. Besides, if the ”Vegas” hangover is in effect here, then chances are we’re not going to need a lucky OT winner to cash in.
The price on the Avs has been dropping slightly today and we can understand why. The Wild are a consistently strong regular season team. They have won three of their last four games, which includes a win in Vegas last time out, a venue that rarely gives up victories to the visitor. However, the Wild were also the last team to lose to the Ducks (3-0). The needed OT to beat the Kings. They beat Vegas despite a mere 22 shots in net. They beat Columbus but scored just twice. In six of their last 10 games, Minnesota has registered, 26, 25, 24, 22, 18 and 22 shots on net and won four of those games and now they’ll play their last game before the break in Colorado the game after they played in Vegas. That’s the angle here.
Prior to Minnesota, Pittsburgh was the last team to play in Vegas but their break came afterward so there was no next game. Prior to that is was San Jose that played in Vegas but the Sharks next game was at home against Ottawa and the Sens were in a bad spot and still without Duchene and Chabot we we laid off (San Jose won 4-1). Prior to that, we played the “hangover” angle by fading the Devils and then the Rangers and cashed both tickets. Excluding San Jose, teams are now 4-14-3 the next game after playing the Knights at T-Mobile Arena and have been outscored by a ridiculous 73-38 count. Not only this a tough spot for the Wild but they’ll face a desperate and very hungry team that is playing well but not being rewarded for it.
Colorado is dominating games but has lost five of seven. Their two wins over that span were by scores of 7-1 and 6-3, which is a much stronger indicator of how well a team is playing than a one or two goal loss. The Avs have recently dominated Calgary and Nashville but lost 5-3 and 4-1 respectively. They played better in that 5-3 loss to Calgary than they did in their 7-1 win over the Kings. They dominated the Maple Leafs too, outshooting them, 38-20. Hard work and strong play gets rewarded and all the Avs need here is a decent effort from their goaltender and we’ll be cashing this ticket.
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COLORADO -½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)