Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
10:05 PM EST. We have absolutely no idea which team will emerge victorious here but what we will suggest is that this might be the best value on the board tonight so let’s start with the Predators. Nashville is now 19-8-1 and goes for its third straight win after beating the Sabres 2-1 on Monday. The Predators completed a stretch of 13 games in 24 days by going 7-5-1 and sit atop the Central Division but we can almost guarantee that regression is coming in everything the Preds do. Over the past three weeks covering 13 games, the Preds rank 17th in High Danger Scoring Chances against (HDCA), thus Pekka Rinne’s 1.81 GAA is completely unsustainable. Furthermore, only six teams have taken more minor penalties than the Preds, thus they are spending too much time in the box to keep winning at the pace that they are now. We often refer to luck evening out over time and in that regard, Nashville’s unsustainable shooting and save percentages are starting to do exactly that. For the first six weeks of the season, Nashville’s PDO (shooting % + save %) ranked 3rd in the NHL but over the past three weeks, it ranks 26th. Finally, the Preds have won two in a row but are still without Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban, Kyle Turris and Filip Forsberg. That quartet counts for 30% of all Nashville’s offense this season and without them, they are very beatable and cannot be priced in this range.
Remember when the Canucks were the talk of the NHL after the first month of the year? Well, since then, Vancouver has done a complete 180° and now there isn’t a team in the NHL whose stock is lower. That makes us instant buyers on the Canucks over their next few games or until their stock rises again. Vancouver has now lost four in a row and 11 of 12. Just like they were not good enough to keep winning at the pace they started out on, they are not weak enough to keep losing at this pace. The massive funk that started about a month ago coincided with the loss of several key pieces that included Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi among others but aside from Baertschi, the Canucks are healthy again. Furthermore, the pickup of former Leaf Josh Leivo was such a good pick-up because he can play, he’ll add energy and scoring depth and would probably be a top-six forward on at least 50% of the teams in this league. The Canucks are on the verge of snapping out of it and we promise that they’ll put forth a strong effort tonight and will not be shaking in their blue suede skates to play this depleted invader. Instead, they’ll be chomping at the bit.
(Note to all fantasy players - pick up Leivo if he’s available, as he’s on the Canucks top line with Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser).
OT included - VANCOUVER +132 for 1 unit.
Regulation only - VANCOUVER -½ +220 for 1 unit.
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VANCOUVER -½ +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)