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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:15 PM EST. After Game 3 when Winnipeg lost in Vegas 4-2, I personally had some good folks tweeting out to me that Vegas is the straight goods and that they are outplaying Winnipeg. The analytics charts showed a completely different story but perception is reality and those that believed Vegas was outplaying Winnipeg by a wide margin, actually did think they were. You can apply that same thing to last night's 3-2 Vegas victory. You also see folks arguing over which team is better than the other, whether it’s Boston over Tampa, Vegas over Winnipeg, Winnipeg over Vegas or Washington over Tampa Bay. Well, we’re here to once again preach that NHL hockey, especially when it comes down to the final eight or four teams is all goaltending and luck. Nothing more, nothing less so if you actually think that you can predict which teams will hit the post, miss wide open nets, have goalies wandering out of their crease and causing weak goals against or deflecting pucks in, all the power to you.

You want further proof of how hockey is all goaltending and luck-driven? Check out the teams that missed the playoffs this year.: Calgary, Arizona, Chicago, Montreal, New York Rangers and Islanders, Detroit, Buffalo, Dallas, St. Louis, Ottawa, Florida, Carolina, Edmonton and Vancouver.

What all those teams have in common other than missing the playoffs is weak goaltending. Do you seriously think that’s a coincidence? If 90% of those teams had solid goaltending, they would be instant playoff teams. Remember a couple of years ago when Montreal got off to a 10-0 start and hockey media was talking possible Cup? As soon as Carey Price got injured, the Habs couldn’t win a game. Cam Talbot was great last year for Edmonton and this year he was awful. Last year, Edmonton made the playoffs and this year they did not. Carolina has one of the best collection of skaters in the NHL but can’t make the playoffs because they have the worst goaltending in the NHL. Last year, Tampa’s #1 goaltender was Ben Bishop and they missed the playoffs. They traded Bishop to Dallas and this year, Dallas missed the playoffs. Last year, Connor Hellebucyk and Michael Hutchinson were shaky all year for Winnipeg and they missed the playoffs. This year, Hellebucyk has been great and the Jets are a cup contender. If Cam Ward was on Vegas, their first-year story would’ve been over long ago with them being a “nice” expansion team. Washington is tied with Tampa 2-2 in the series because Holtby was better than Andrei Vasilevskiy twice and Andrei Vasilevskiy was better than Holtby twice. Vegas beat Winnipeg last night because Marc Andre Fleury was better than Connor Hellebucyk. Winnipeg beat Nashville because Pekka Rinne was yanked three times and Tampa beat Boston because Tuukka Rask was awful. We could go on and on about this stuff and cover every year over the past two decades. Goaltending is the wide, wide margin deciding factor of which team wins and which team loses, which is why we say play value and let the chips fall where they may. If you can predict which goaltender will be better, you will have your winner for this game but since you cannot (nobody can), the prudent choice is taking back a price and hoping that Braden Holby is getter than Andrei Vasilevskiy.At this price, it is worth the risk.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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