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Posted on Tuesday April 10 before Game 1

WINNIPEG -1½ games +120 over Minnesota

Series pick – Begins Wednesday, April 11

7:00 PM EST. This wager is available at most books and requires the Jets to win the series in six games or less. If the series goes seven game or Minnesota upsets the Jets, this wager will lose but obviously, we expect to cash this ticket. 

The Wild were one of the hottest teams to start the New Year after going 15-4-4 but finished the season with more losses than wins (9-6-4) after the February 26th trade deadline. Minnesota stood pat that day and has seemingly suffered for it, as its already anemic offense has slowed to a snail's pace. Minnesota’ shot totals and scoring chances have declined since the trade deadline. The Wild are just 20th in shots over that final leg of the season but have been scoring at a high clip, which suggests a correction to their shooting % is very likely coming.  Depth is huge in the playoffs and the Wild will be without workhorse defenseman Ryan Suter, who is out after breaking his ankle last week. Suter is by far the Wild's best defender and although they will get Jared Spurgeon back, he's recovering from a torn hamstring. Asking Spurgeon to matchup with the Jets' top lines is a tall order even if he is 100%. Minny's leading scorer, Eric Staal, who feels likes he's 43 and not 33, was picked up off the scrap heap after a disappointing year in New York. Only Staal (44), Jason Zucker (33) and Mikael Granlund (21) topped the 20-goal plateau for Minnesota. A team this offensively challenged is not equipped to compete here. You can't bring a knife to a gun fight. The only advantage the Wild carry into this series is their consistent run of postseason appearances since 2012-13.

Playoff pedigree matters to this market, which makes the Jets a hard sell no matter which timeline you choose to follow. As the Thrashers/Jets 2.0, this team has made just two short appearances in the postseason since joining the league in 1999 after getting swept by the Rangers when they were Atlanta and by the Ducks after they moved to Winnipeg. As a city, Winnipeg's NHL playoff history is nothing to brag about either. Although there were some very good teams in the 1980s, they were no match for Gretzky's Oilers. By the time the original Jets set their sights on the desert in 1996, it had been 10 years since they had won a first-round series. However, none of that history matters now and the constant chatter about past failures only lessens Winnipeg's appeal in the market. Make no mistake, the Jets are the superior team here and it’s not close.

Winnipeg has the better goaltender and the best player on the ice. In fact, the Jets could roll out four or five guys that would all instantly be the top option on the Wild. Winnipeg has five players that scored 20 more goals this season and if not for an injury to Mathieu Perrault, they may have had six. Home ice advantage has been an important part of the Jets' success this season after they won a league-best 32 games at Bell MTS Place. Unlike the Wild, the Jets are peaking at the right time, as they were a freight train that could do little wrong down the stretch after losing just one game over their final 12. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck's breakout season is the main reason the Jets have transformed from pretenders into contenders. He's in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy after posting a .937 save percentage and a 2.38 goals against average. His outstanding play combined with a group that runs four lines deep has the Jets set to go on a long playoff run. The addition of center Paul Stasny at the trade deadline was nothing short of brilliant, as he's fit in fabulously between Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine. However, beyond the big names in Wheeler, Scheifele, Byfuglien and others, it's guys like Perrault and Adam Lowry that make this team hum. The latter makes a difference when he is on the ice and is just one of those players who you notice every time he's out there. Lowry, along with his line-mates Chris Tanev and Andrew Copp have been intricate in shutting down the other team's top line the second half of the year. The Jets won three out of four meetings this season with the Wild, but three of those games were played in 2017, the other was in January. At that time, the Wild were rolling while the Jets were still finding their footing. Now, Winnipeg is hitting its stride at the right time, while the Wild skidded into the postseason. This is not likely to be a long series. The Jets are being undersold here even though they are the favorite. We're betting they make quick work of the Wild and you should too.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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