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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indianapolis +5½ -110 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. Before we talk about a single player, talk about the line, because the line is the story. This game opened at Dallas -1.5. It now sits at Dallas -5.5, and nothing about the Dallas Cowboys changed this week. What changed is that Indianapolis lost 42-7 at Jacksonville last Sunday, on television, in front of everybody, and the market did what it always does after a public execution: it overcorrected. Four full points of steam for a 3-5 road team with the worst defence in football by yardage. Somebody has to take the other side of that, and the other side is us.

The football case is not hard to build once you look at what Dallas actually is. The Cowboys score, 27.4 points per game, seventh in the league, with Dak Prescott at 2,046 yards and 14 touchdowns. They also defend like a screen door in a hurricane: 385.4 yards allowed per game, dead last, 26.6 points allowed per game, 27th. A team like that laying five and a half on the road is a team begging to be backdoored, and Indianapolis owns the exact tool for the job. Jonathan Taylor has 610 rushing yards this season, Dallas has been gashed on the ground all year, and the Colts at home in a dome with a 51.5 total are playing in the highest scoring environment on the Sunday slate. Points will be available, early and late, and +5½ in a game with points available is a cushion that breathes. Dallas also arrives with its own training room roll call: George Pickens questionable with a hamstring, Jake Ferguson questionable with an ankle, safety Caleb Downs in the concussion protocol and KaVontae Turpin likely out.

Honesty paragraph, because this one needs it. The Colts are 2-6, they have lost four straight, their turnover differential is minus 11, worst in the league, and Daniel Jones has thrown five touchdown passes all season. Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and the passing game is close to decorative. If Dallas plays a clean game, protects Dak and jumps ahead two scores, Indianapolis does not have the firepower to chase, and 42-7 was not an accident so much as a warning label. All true. It is also all priced in, then priced in again, then steamed another point for good measure. You are not betting that the Colts are good. You are betting that a historically leaky road favourite is not four points better than the team the lookahead line said was nearly its equal.

Expect a sloppy, entertaining mess: Taylor ripping chunks, Dallas answering through the air, and a one score game in the fourth quarter where the Colts, playing at home with nothing left to protect, are the side holding the points. The favourite escapes and the dog eats. That is the whole idea behind taking an inflated number off an overreaction.

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