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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +4½ -110 over Dallas

8:15 PM EST. Monday night at the Linc, and and we're not betting this game because it's not worth betting. Both of these teams are 2-4 in a division nobody has been able to win a game in over the last two weeks, which means the winner walks out a half-game out of first place. Let's be honest about what you're looking at, because neither of these teams is fooling anybody. Dallas is a dumpster fire. People are talking about how bad the Cowboys are, openly, all week. Philadelphia's stock hasn't been this low in a decade. Jalen Hurts is done for the season, Tanner McKee is the quarterback, DeVonta Smith is out, Saquon Barkley has been hurt, and all anyone wants to talk about is tanking, dumping salary, and starting over. Everybody has a sour taste in their mouth about the Eagles, and plenty of people have one about Dallas too. There is no good team in this game. There is only a number, and the number is wrong.

Here is how that number got built. Everybody bets Monday Night Football. It's the only game on, it's the last game of the week, and thus, everybody has to pick somebody and they cannot bring themselves to pick Philadelphia. Not this Philadelphia. A team with no quarterback, no top receiver, a hurt running back, and a fan base already talking about next year is simply unbettable to most people, no matter how many points you give them. So by process of elimination, the money lands on Dallas. Not because the market is sold on Dallas. Not because the market is high on Dallas. Dallas is just the better of two evils, and the one thing Dallas still has that Philadelphia doesn't is star power: Prescott and Lamb are names you recognize, guys you can picture making a play on Monday night. Philadelphia has none left. Nobody you can point to and say, that guy wins this game. That gap, and only that gap, is why Dallas is laying points on the road.

Dallas isn't laying 4½ because anyone believes in Dallas. Dallas is laying 4½ because Philadelphia is unbettable. When a team becomes unbettable, the points go too far, and that's the overshoot you're taking. A dumpster fire that just lost two straight, scored 29 points total across both games, turned the ball over five times, and sleepwalked through a Thursday night humiliation in Tampa without ever waking up now has to go on the road, in a rivalry game, on Monday night, and win by five to cover. Nobody laying that number actually trusts this Dallas team to do that. They just couldn't bring themselves to take the other side. The one piece of good news in Philadelphia is the one nobody is pricing, because the obituaries are already written: Barkley, out since Week 4, is questionable and reported in line to play. Nobody cares, because everyone has already decided this season is over. Maybe it is. But a team that is supposedly packing it in does not get to be a half-game out of first place with a Monday night home game against the team it hates most.

So be clear about what this pick is and what it isn't. This is not a vote that Philadelphia is good. Nobody thinks Philadelphia is good right now, and that is exactly the point. This is a vote that a favorite nobody believes in, laying points only because the other team is unbettable, is laying too many of them. When the market's choice comes down to process of elimination, the points on the other side of that elimination are where the money is. Take the home dog getting more than a field goal while everyone else is still spitting out the taste of last week. Recommendation: Philadelphia (no bets).

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