Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

LA Chargers +8½ -110 over Kansas City

4:25 PM EST. Yes, the Chargers are 0-5 — worst start since 2003. Yes, Justin Herbert has nine turnovers behind four rookie starters on the offensive line, which is less a depth chart and more a missing persons report. This is the ugliest ticket on the board. That's exactly why it cashes.

Kansas City is 4-0 and sleepwalking through October: 1-5 against the spread in their last six games off a bye, Rashee Rice is doubtful (two straight DNPs), and Mahomes' knee is being "managed," which is code for "we'll tell you in January." The Chiefs win these divisional games 24-17 and go home. They do not cover 8.5 against opponents who see them twice a year and aren't impressed.

The total dropped three full points to 42.5 because nobody trusts either offense to show up. Ugly, low-scoring, divisional, big underdog — the cover parlay writes itself. Chargers +8.5. Hold your nose and collect.

This one is as good as it gets for us, because it checks every single box we look for. The point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer, and understand what it's being asked to equalize here. The Chargers are not just 0-5, they're 0-5 against the spread. There is not a single person on planet Earth who has cashed a point-spread ticket on the Chargers this year. Nobody. Nobody is running to the window to bet them now, either. Across from them is an undefeated Kansas City team, so you have unbeaten against winless, and the winless team hasn't covered a single number. Of course the oddsmakers are forced to inflate this price — they have no choice. Now, Kansas City may indeed go out and crush the Chargers on Sunday. That's possible. But we're not in the prediction business, we're in the buy low, sell high business. If you fade the Chargers this week, you might even cash that ticket, but man, are you ever late to that party. The time to fade Los Angeles was Week 1, when their stock was high, when they were coming into the year as a favorite to win this division. That ship sailed five weeks ago. The time to fade the Chargers is not now. Now is the time to back them.

Sportsinteraction