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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington -3½ -110 over NY Giants

1:00 PM EST. Stop the presses! The New York Giants are 3-1, and apparently we're supposed to be impressed. The Giants have won three of their first four games, and suddenly people are talking about them as though they've discovered something special. Perhaps we should examine exactly whom these clowns have beaten. Their three victories came against Dallas, Tennessee and Arizona, three teams with a combined record of 3-9. That's not exactly a murderers' row. It's more like the NFL's witness protection program.

In Week 1, the Giants defeated Dallas with Jaxson Dart at quarterback. At the time, that victory looked respectable. Four weeks later, we're discovering that the Cowboys are pure garbage themselves, so beating them isn't quite the accomplishment it initially appeared to be. Next came Tennessee, a game the Giants somehow won 12-7 despite trailing for much of the afternoon. Twelve points against the Titans? Congratulations. Somebody get the champagne. Then came last week's masterpiece against Arizona. The Cardinals practically gift-wrapped the game for New York, including a first-and-goal opportunity from the three-yard line that somehow produced absolutely nothing in the final seconds. Arizona had enough chances to win that game twice, but apparently decided the Giants needed the victory more and just like that, the Giants are 3-1.

The one time New York faced a legitimate opponent, the Los Angeles Rams beat the living daylights out of them, 28-6. That was also the game in which Dart was injured. We're well aware that the Giants have continued winning without him, but beating three bottom-feeders doesn't suddenly transform a bad football team into a good one. The Giants are a bad football team wearing a very flattering 3-1 record.

There's another important distinction here. All three New York victories came at home. Their only road appearance resulted in that 22-point humiliation against Los Angeles. Now they're heading into Washington to face a Commanders team coming off an ugly 30-13 loss to Indianapolis in London. 

Washington's stock has taken a hit, and understandably so. The Commanders were outplayed in the second half against the Colts, and the final score wasn't pretty. But that defeat has created an opportunity to back the more capable team at a reasonable price against an opponent whose record is being taken far too seriously. 

Washington has already demonstrated what it can do at home, upsetting Seattle as an 8½-point underdog. The Commanders have more offensive upside than the Giants, a more credible quarterback situation and a much better opportunity to dictate the game than New York's recent results might suggest. This is another classic case of perception versus reality.

The market sees a 3-1 Giants team that keeps finding ways to win. We see a team that has been living off a steady diet of lousy opponents, fortunate breaks and victories that look considerably better in the standings than they did on the field. The Giants aren't some emerging powerhouse. They're the same collection of misfits that happened to stumble into three victories against teams that couldn't beat a drum.

Washington, meanwhile, is being discounted after one ugly overseas performance. That's precisely the kind of overreaction that creates value. The Giants' 3-1 record is fool's gold. Washington is the better team, playing at home, with a favorable opportunity to expose New York's inflated standing. The Giants have enjoyed their little moment in the sunshine. Now comes the part where somebody turns the lights back on.

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