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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit +5½ -110 over Buffalo

8:15 PM EST. Week 2 of the NFL season might be the best overreaction week on the entire schedule. For months, the market deals in projections, power ratings and educated guesses. Then everybody finally gets to watch one game and suddenly 60 minutes of football becomes gospel. Detroit looked awful for long stretches against New Orleans. They blew a big lead, couldn't get much going offensively in the second half and were fortunate to escape with an overtime victory. Meanwhile, Buffalo went into Houston, hung 36 points on the board and Josh Allen looked every bit like Josh Allen. If you watched both games, laying points with Buffalo here feels almost automatic. That's precisely why we're interested in the other side.

A week ago, Detroit was laying roughly a touchdown. Seven days later, we're being offered +5½. That's approximately a 12-point adjustment from one game to the next. Obviously the opponent and venue are different, but the point remains: Detroit's stock has been hammered while Buffalo's has gone through the roof. We aren't interested in paying for what happened last Sunday. Anyone looking to fade Detroit after watching them struggle with New Orleans is a week late. Anyone looking to buy Buffalo after watching them carve up Houston is paying the premium after the move has already occurred. That's not where we want to be.

There's also an assumption being made that Buffalo is going to score at will because Detroit's defense just made Tyler Shough look like an All-Pro. Maybe they will, but let's not conveniently ignore the other half of the equation. Buffalo's defense wasn't exactly putting on a clinic in Houston either. The Texans scored 31 points and moved the football well enough to have the Bills chasing them throughout the afternoon. Buffalo needed a late Josh Allen touchdown pass to escape. This is still a defense that can be moved on, and Detroit has considerably more offensive weaponry than what Buffalo just dealt with in Houston.

Then we get the perfect backdrop for the favorite. Buffalo is unveiling the new Highmark Stadium in its first regular-season game, Bills Mafia will be completely unhinged, it's Thursday night in prime time and Allen just put on a show. Everything surrounding this game screams Buffalo. But let's not forget that both teams are coming back on four days' rest, and laying a significant number under those circumstances is rarely an appealing proposition. There is virtually no recovery time and very little opportunity to install a normal game plan. When preparation is compressed and fatigue is part of the equation, we're certainly not interested in spotting 5½ points with the team carrying all the hype and expectation. Detroit doesn't have to be the better team here. It simply has to stay within the number.

We're not suggesting Buffalo can't win this game or even win it comfortably. Of course it can. We're saying the number matters, and we're being compensated handsomely for taking the team nobody wants after one ugly performance. The Lions are now getting more than a field goal plus another field goal's worth of insurance in a matchup between two explosive offenses and two defenses that showed significant vulnerability in Week 1. Four days' rest, an inflated number and an overwhelming public narrative all point us in the same direction. Let everyone else bet what they saw last week. We'll bet the number in front of us today.

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