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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kansas City -2½ -110 over Denver

8:15 PM EST. The public has not hated the Kansas City Chiefs this much since Patrick Mahomes arrived in the NFL, and that's precisely why we're interested. Kansas City failed to cover eight of its final nine games last season, burned bettors repeatedly, lost both meetings to Denver, and has now dropped three straight to the Broncos. That leaves a nasty taste in everyone's mouth, which is exactly how betting markets become distorted. People aren't buying Denver because they're suddenly convinced the Broncos are the 1985 Bears. They're buying them because they're emotionally exhausted from getting kicked in the nuts by Kansas City. We'll happily take the other side.

Let's talk about Bo Nix. Every year somebody desperately tries convincing us he's about to become a superstar, and every year we're left watching a quarterback whose greatest accomplishment is making ordinary throws look like they're being delivered by carrier pigeon. Bo Nix has become the participation trophy of NFL quarterbacks: everybody keeps telling him he's improving because nobody wants to hurt his feelings. Denver fans treat every 14-yard rollout completion like they just witnessed Montana to Rice. We don't see it. Give us Patrick Mahomes coming off one leg, one arm and wearing an eye patch before we'd trust Bo Nix to win a meaningful road game in Arrowhead.

Then there's Sean Payton, the man who has spent the better part of two decades trying to prove he's the smartest guy within a 500-mile radius. Sometimes that brilliance shows up. Other times he has Jarrett Stidham throwing play-action on fourth-and-one because apparently handing the ball to your running back is beneath his intellectual standards. Payton loves being the chess grandmaster while everyone else is playing checkers, except occasionally he's playing chess against himself and still manages to lose. Now we're supposed to believe Denver marches into Arrowhead with a new offensive coordinator, a quarterback we don't trust, and suddenly everything is going to click on opening night? That's asking a lot.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is sitting there like the forgotten heavyweight everyone has decided is washed because he lost a few rounds. Mahomes is back. Arrowhead will be absolutely nuclear. Andy Reid has had months to prepare for one football game, which is usually about as comforting for opposing defensive coordinators as hearing a chainsaw start behind your tent. The Chiefs finally added legitimate explosiveness in the backfield with Kenneth Walker, and even if the offense isn't perfect out of the gate, Kansas City doesn't need to score 40 points to beat Denver. They simply need to be Kansas City again for four quarters, and that's a much safer bet than expecting Bo Nix to suddenly become Joe Burrow.

This is a classic buy-low opportunity. The Chiefs' stock is sitting in the bargain bin because bettors remember every missed cover, every frustrating loss and every Denver celebration from last season. Markets have memories just like people do, and sometimes those memories become more valuable than the actual football team standing in front of us. We're not interested in joining the Bo Nix fan club, and we're certainly not buying Sean Payton's latest genius seminar on the road in Arrowhead. Give us Mahomes at home, give us the better quarterback by a country mile, and give us Kansas City -2½ to remind everyone that funerals for dynasties are often held about three years too early.

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