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Posted Saturday at 8:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Sunday, January 18

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

New England -4 +105 over Houston

3:00 PM EST. The media narrative this week is simple: Houston’s defense is elite, therefore Houston must be the side. That storyline picked up steam after the Texans’ 30–6 win over Pittsburgh, a game that looked dominant in the box score but far less impressive if you actually watched it. That contest was 7–6 well into the second half, and Pittsburgh’s offense looked less like an NFL unit and more like a retirement community flag football team. When the media starts polishing trophies for a defense based on one opponent having a pulse check scheduled, it’s usually time to step back.

If Houston’s defense is as dominant as advertised, the résumé should support it. Instead, what we see is a unit that has quietly allowed points and yardage to anyone capable of executing a competent game plan. The Texans surrendered 30 points to Indianapolis behind a third-string quarterback, let Las Vegas control a game they had no business winning, and benefited from injuries or situational breaks in multiple close escapes. This isn’t a shutdown defense. It’s an okay defense that’s being sold as great. Hell, Jacoby Brissett put up nearly 300 yards against Houstoin while throwing for 3 TD’s. Jacksonville was ahead of Houston 29-10 going to the fourth quarter in another game mid-season before they quit and allowed 26 unanswered in the fourth. That should have been another Houston loss among a few others.   

That brings us to the real separator in this matchup: quarterback play and overall team balance. New England enters this game with stability, structure, and a quarterback who consistently elevates the players around him. Houston, meanwhile, is still relying on C.J. Stroud to win games. Comparing Drake Maye to Stroud is equivalent to comparing Bill Gates to Donald Trump in a game of chess.

From a betting perspective, the number simply doesn’t make sense. New England spotting only three points at home implies this is close to a pick’em once you remove home-field advantage, and that’s a mistake. The Patriots are the more complete team, playing in cold conditions, in a familiar environment, against an opponent whose strengths are being exaggerated by recency bias. When the market prices narrative instead of substance, value shows up quickly.

This is about refusing to buy hype at retail prices. When you strip away the noise, the line is too short, the spot is too good, and the value is clear. Houston beating Pittsburgh told us more about Pittsburgh than it did about Houston like winning a footrace against someone on crutches. Betting Houston here because of last week’s win is like buying stock at the top because your Uber driver says it’s going higher. New England all day.......

At the time of this writing, New England was -3 -120. We're not interested in laying extra vig with New England at -3 because we're not going to need it. It's not going to matter. Instead, we'll take it at -4 with a small takeback

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