Posted Friday at 12:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 3

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 21

L.A. Rams +3½ over Philadelphia

 

1:00 PM EST. Let’s rewind the tape to Week 1 for a second. The Eagles were touchdown favorites at home against the Cowboys, and they nearly coughed it up. Philadelphia escaped by the skin of their teeth, thanks to a couple of red zone stands and a Dak Prescott foot barely on the sideline. They were outgained, outplayed, and very nearly outscored — at home — in a game where they were supposed to make a statement. So excuse us if we’re not ready to crown them the NFC’s elite just because they followed that up with a ho-hum win over Kansas City. The Eagles are 2–0 on paper, but anyone watching with their eyes open can see that they’re not playing like a 2–0 team.

 

Now the Eagles are spotting more than a field goal against the Rams. They’re spotting a margin against a coach-quarterback combo like McVay and Stafford. That’s rich. This Rams’ team isn’t some surprise 2–0 squad that’s going to come crashing down. They’ve got legit balance, playmakers on both sides of the ball, and a QB who’s not just managing games, but winning them. This isn’t a flash-in-the-pan feel-good story. It’s a team that looks like they’ve recalibrated, reloaded, and remembered exactly who they are and what they are is dangerous.

 

The Eagles, on the other hand, are still trying to remember what made them dominant in the first place. Jalen Hurts threw for just 101 yards against the Chiefs. Their offensive line, while still solid, isn’t giving him nearly as much time as he had last year. The defense? Good, but not great. This isn’t the 2022 version of Philly steamrolling everyone on the way to Glendale. This is a team scraping by, leaning on pedigree, and hoping to figure it out as they go. That’s fine but it doesn’t justify this number. If anything, it screams value on the dog.

 

So yeah, we’ll gladly take the points. The Rams are being treated like a plucky underdog here, when in reality, they might be one of the top five teams in the NFC right now. They’re coached better, playing looser, and they’re bringing that quiet confidence you only get from having nothing to prove and everything to gain. Meanwhile, the Eagles are still trying to shake off the cobwebs and live up to last year’s version of themselves. Give us the points and don’t be shocked if the Rams win it outright. It's a value grab. Recommendation: L.A. Rams +3½

 

Cleveland +8 over Green Bay

 

1:00 PM ET. Green Bay looked terrific under the lights last Thursday against Washington, and the market cannot get to the window fast enough to back them again. Add in Cleveland getting its brains beat in by Baltimore, and suddenly the Packers are being priced like a juggernaut while the Browns are being dismissed as a free square. That’s precisely when the oddsmakers slide us a crooked number. Last week, the Ravens closed as a 12½-point favorite over these very Browns and covered with ease. Now Green Bay, on extra rest after dominating Washington, is spotting just a touchdown? If the Packers are as dominant as the market claims, this line should be 10, maybe more. It isn’t. That alone should tell you all you need to know about where the value lies.

 

Cleveland has been lumped into the “booger-eater” category by the mainstream football conversation, but that noise often creates opportunity. Everyone saw Baltimore bully them. Everyone saw Green Bay shine in prime time. Recency bias is fueling this number, not a sober evaluation of the actual matchup. Football doesn’t work like the stock market—value isn’t in buying the winners, it’s in buying the hated, the ugly, the team nobody wants. That’s the Browns right now. They were embarrassed, they’ve been written off, and the public has already moved on to highlight reels of Jordan Love throwing darts to Christian Watson. That’s when taking back a full converted touchdown becomes the prudent move.

 

Cleveland still has playmakers on defense, and this is the exact kind of week where effort shows up after being clowned the game prior. Books are daring you to step in front of the Packers freight train, and we’ll happily oblige. Numbers like this don’t show up by accident and when the oddsmakers tell us something, we listen. Recommendation: Cleveland +8

 

NY Jets +6½ over Tampa Bay

 

1:00 PM ET. The Buccaneers are 2-0, and the market is buying into it. They’ve won both games in dramatic fashion, scoring game-winning drives inside the final minute. That’s not dominance, that’s coin-flip football going their way. Tampa hasn’t started 3-0 in 20 years, yet here they are spotting a touchdown with a quarterback nursing multiple leg issues and an offensive line that’s already down key starters. Calijah Kancey, their best defensive lineman, just went to IR, and both trenches are getting thinner by the week.

The Jets, meanwhile, have looked dreadful with Justin Fields, but he’s out, and Tyrod Taylor brings the kind of stability this offense needs. He’s seen every coverage and every blitz package the league can throw at him. He doesn’t make big mistakes, and that alone is an upgrade over what New York has gotten the last two weeks. The Jets’ defense is also better than it has shown — anchored by a front that can pressure Mayfield, who’s already been taking hits in both wins. The market is throwing this number because of the Jets’ 0-2 record and quarterback situation, not the true matchup.

This is a bad favorite profile. Tampa is living off reputation and close-game variance, while New York comes in undervalued with a veteran QB who can manage the game. The Buccaneers aren’t built to separate, and laying this kind of lumber is asking for trouble. That puts us squarely on the Jets plus the inflated points. Recommendation: NY Jets +6½

New England +1½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. It’s always dangerous to back a bad team just because the other one looks worse, but this number is short for a reason. The Steelers’ defense is leaking oil and the market has yet to fully price that in. They’ve allowed 61 points through two weeks — to Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. Those aren’t quarterbacks that should be lighting up anyone, yet Pittsburgh sits bottom-five in virtually every advanced defensive category. Attrition, thin depth, call it whatever you want, the reality is this unit has been pushed around on the ground and beaten over the top.

The Patriots aren’t contenders, but they’re at least showing signs of life. Drake Maye has settled in as QB1, and since he took over mid-last year, New England games are cashing overs at a 70% clip. That’s because the kid can sling it and he’s got no fear, which means quick points for both sides. New England dropped 33 on Miami last week and suddenly has a shot at consecutive wins for the first time in three years.

Pittsburgh’s problems aren’t getting solved in one week. Their offensive line is shaky, their defense is getting gashed, and their key defenders are already on the injury report. New England, meanwhile, leads the league in sacks, which is a bad recipe for a Steelers team that can’t keep its quarterback upright. The Patriots still have a leaky secondary, but facing Aaron Rodgers and Maye this week is a big step up in class from what Pittsburgh has seen so far.

The market is hanging on to the “Pittsburgh toughness” label, but that was years ago. Right now, they’re a bottom-tier defense catching respect on reputation. The Patriots aren’t pretty, but they’re undervalued in this spot, and Foxborough isn’t a place where bad defenses come to fix themselves. Recommendation: New England +1½

Washington -3 over Las Vegas

1:00 PM ET. The buzz surrounding this matchup is all about quarterback uncertainty for the Commanders, but the line tells the story: Jayden Daniels is unlikely to play. If he misses, veteran Marcus Mariota steps in, a guy familiar with the Raiders from his time in Las Vegas. Mariota has shown he can manage the offense efficiently, completing 34 of 44 passes for four touchdowns already this season. With a healthy supporting cast and a stable offensive game plan, Washington isn’t exactly losing much in terms of production, and the market may be overreacting to the Daniels storyline.

Washington’s defense is also poised to take advantage. With Preston Smith joining the pass rush and the Raiders dealing with a depleted offensive line, Geno Smith and his group are in for a long afternoon. Las Vegas has struggled to put points on the board, averaging just 14.5 per game, and their rushing attack with Ashton Jeanty has yet to gain traction. Injuries and short rest from Monday night travel further hamper the Raiders’ chances to keep this close, especially against a Commanders squad that has been aggressive in pressuring opposing quarterbacks.

This is one of those spots where the narrative — quarterback drama and last-minute roster chatter — inflates the line slightly in the market’s eyes. Washington gets home-field advantage, a rested team, and a defense capable of disrupting Las Vegas’ limited offensive weapons. Taking the points with a Commanders squad that has both experience and depth at key positions looks like a solid and practical play for Sunday. Recommendation: Washington -3

Tennessee +4 over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. The market loves streaks, and that’s part of the problem here. Indianapolis has won and covered four straight over Tennessee after the Titans owned this series for years. That narrative, combined with the Colts’ hot start, has inflated this line to the point where Tennessee offers real value. Indy got a miracle last week — a last-second penalty gift against Denver — and while the numbers look shiny (no punts, top-three in EPA/play), those are precisely the kind of early-season statistical darlings that bettors get suckered into chasing.

The Titans are a mess on paper: 0-8 straight up since November, 1-7 ATS in that stretch, with leaky protection and a rookie quarterback learning on the fly. Yet they’ve faced two quality opponents, were competitive into the second half in both, and now catch the Colts outside of their dome comfort zone. Cam Ward’s mobility showed flashes against the Rams, Tony Pollard has been close to breaking a big game, and Indianapolis still has injury concerns at key skill positions. This isn’t about pretending Tennessee is good — it’s about recognizing when the market has gone too far in one direction.

Every year, we see early-season overreactions create inflated numbers, and this is one of them. Indianapolis has suddenly been priced like a contender after two games, while Tennessee has been buried after a bad home loss. Neither extreme is accurate. Division games often play tighter than the line suggests, and spotting road points against a Titans team that has nothing to lose and a quarterback who is only getting better is bankroll busting proposition over time. This is a classic buy-low on a team nobody wants, which is exactly where we want to be. Recommendation: Tennessee +4

Jacksonville -1½ over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The market loves history. Houston has owned Jacksonville for the better part of 15 years, winning 12 of the last 14 head-to-heads and seven straight in Duval. That storyline is everywhere, and it’s the only reason Houston isn’t a bigger dog here. What’s overlooked is the current state of these two teams, because if you strip away the “Texans always beat the Jags” angle, this number looks short.

The Texans are 0-2 and dead last in the league in scoring offense at 14 points per game. They’re 31st in rushing success rate, Stroud has been sacked six times already, and the offensive line is a patchwork unit with no fix in sight. Injuries across the receiving corps leave Houston short-handed again, and their new play-caller has produced a bottom-five offense through two weeks. Those are structural problems, not bad luck. The fact they’ve lost by a combined six points only masks how ineffective they’ve been with the ball.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, has positives hidden beneath a 1-1 record. They lead the NFL in takeaways, they rank first in rushing yards per game, and Travis Etienne looks like the league’s most explosive back not named Jonathan Taylor. The Bengals clipped them late last week, but the Jags still piled up nearly 400 yards of offense and forced three picks. Spotting less than a field goal at home to an opponent that can’t block, can’t run, and is living off past results is a discount we’re happy to pay. The streak says Houston, but the value screams Jacksonville. Recommendation: Jacksonville -1½

Denver +3 over LA Chargers

4:05 PM ET. The Broncos enter this matchup with a bitter taste in their mouths after a controversial loss to the Colts in Week 2, one where a missed field goal and a leverage penalty snatched victory away from Denver. Bo Nix and the Broncos offense had moments of promise, including a three-touchdown performance from Nix and a strong connection with J.K. Dobbins, but the team couldn’t sustain production late in the game. While Denver’s 1-1 record looks pedestrian, the way they’ve been competitive against strong opponents suggests they aren’t far off from a big performance, especially against a Chargers team dealing with key injuries on defense.

Los Angeles enters this Week 3 contest as the only undefeated team in the AFC West, but the road hasn’t been easy. They’ve been without linebacker Khalil Mack for the early part of the season and lost Denzel Perryman to injury, yet a shorthanded defense still managed to slow the Raiders and control the ball. Justin Herbert continues to show poise and efficiency, throwing five touchdowns without an interception through two games, and the Chargers now finally have the comfort of a home game after two road victories. Their combination of a high-powered offense and opportunistic defense makes them a formidable opponent.

The line, however, doesn’t fully account for Denver’s motivation and the Chargers’ vulnerabilities. This is a team coming off a near-win that could have easily been a victory, facing an LA team dealing with multiple defensive injuries and still adjusting to its first home game of the season. The Broncos are built to exploit those weaknesses, and Sean Payton’s squad should come out with intensity and efficiency, making Denver a sharp play in what could be a tightly contested and high-scoring affair. Recommendation: Denver +3

New Orleans +7 over Seattle

 

4:05 PM ET. Seattle put up 31 last week on Pittsburgh and suddenly the market wants you to believe that Sam Darnold has turned into Joe Montana. That’s the NFL in a nutshell—one week’s performance drives the line, while everything else gets tossed aside. The Seahawks are being priced here like a top-five team, and we’re not buying. Kenneth Walker looked great, Cooper Kupp was involved, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba flashed, but it’s still Sam Darnold at quarterback and Seattle still has major holes in the trenches. One clean game against a fragile Steelers team doesn’t erase who they are at their core.

 

Meanwhile, New Orleans rolls into this one 0-2, and the narrative writes itself: “rebuilding, rookie QB, no chance in Seattle.” That’s exactly the type of team we want to get behind. Spencer Rattler hasn’t been perfect, but the kid competes, and this offense has actually moved the ball in spurts. The Saints were a handful of plays from beating Arizona in Week 1 and nearly pulled one off against San Francisco despite trotting out half of a practice squad at wideout. That’s not nothing. The box scores show losses, but the underlying play suggests a team that’s hanging around and improving.

 

The betting window is where perception meets reality, and this number is inflated on Seattle hype. New Orleans isn’t flying across the country to roll over, and history shows us the Saints have a knack for giving the Seahawks problems. Seven points is a mountain in the NFL, and the underdog is absolutely live here. While we’re down on New Orleans long-term, in this spot they’re the value play. Recommendation: New Orleans +7.

 

San Francisco -2½ over Arizona

 

4:25 PM ET. Arizona has opened the season with a gift-wrapped schedule that would make even the Ottawa Redblacks look competent. They’ve beaten the Saints, Panthers, and then got the 49ers in a compromised spot here. The Cards are 2-0, but their fourth quarter against Carolina told us all we needed to know. They allowed Bryce Young to march down the field twice, coughed up an onside kick, and threw an interception so absurd it should be preserved in Canton under “comedy.” That’s not the profile of a team we’re in a hurry to trust as a short home dog, let alone as a team the market is willing to flirt with as a favorite.

 

The market is treating Brock Purdy as if he’s already ruled out, which he isn’t. Even if he sits, San Francisco isn’t trotting out a pumpkin. Mac Jones is no world-beater, but he looked better against the Saints last week than Kyler Murray looked against the Panthers the week before. That’s damning. McCaffrey remains healthy (for now) and is good for 20+ touches, which is basically a cheat code against a team that was gashed by the worst Carolina offense since George Seifert. This is a Niners team that knows how to win ugly and still has plenty of defensive pieces to disrupt Arizona’s gimmicky momentum.

 

If you strip away the noise, this line is simply wrong. San Francisco is the far superior side, even with injuries, and they’re being discounted heavily for the possibility of no Purdy. That’s when you strike. Numbers like -1½ don’t last when the difference between these rosters is this wide. The Cardinals’ early fortune is about to run out, and we’ll gladly step in before the market corrects. Recommendation: San Francisco -1½.

 

NY Giants +6 over Kansas City

 

8:15 PM ET. Kansas City is 0-2, and the vultures are circling. The chatter this week will be endless: “What’s wrong with Mahomes?” “Are the Chiefs done?” “Is this the end of an era?” Forgive us if we’re not biting. The Chiefs are still dangerous, still armed with the best QB in the sport, and still plenty capable of turning this ship around. That said, perception is a powerful drug, and the market still insists on pricing them like the wrecking ball of old. Until they prove otherwise, we’ll happily take back inflated points against them.

 

Enter the Giants, a team with scars of their own, but who quietly fit the mold of a live dog here. They’ve been buried by the market thanks to last year’s ugly ATS record and another rough start, yet there’s more competency than they’re given credit for. Daniel Jones has weapons, the defense can bring pressure, and the Giants’ offense has a way of making life chaotic, which is exactly what you want when catching a number like this. Kansas City has covered just once in its last seven home games and has routinely been overvalued when laying more than a field goal. This spread assumes the Chiefs are still that ruthless juggernaut. They’re not.

Maybe Mahomes and company blow the doors off someone eventually, but until then, this is about playing the value. The Giants don’t need to be world-beaters, they just need to hang around against a team still searching for rhythm. Asking Kansas City to win by a full touchdown right now feels like a leap of faith, not a sharp wager. Our faith is elsewhere. Recommendation: Giants +6.