Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia
4:25 PM EST. Almost as soon as the spread came out on this big NFC showdown, the number moved from San Francisco +1 to -1.5 within an hour. Now it sits at -3, for good reason. We could go over all the statistics you already know about these two elite teams, but that’s not what this handicap is about. Of course both teams are among the best not only in their conference, they’re each in the top-3 favorites in current futures-markets to take home the Lombardi Trophy. The difference in Sunday’s matchup is that one team is due for considerable negative regression, while the other outfit is at the height of their powers and seeking revenge. We’d prefer the latter.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards per game in four straight wins. In short, their defense has been a problem. Philadelphia is likely feeling the burden of facing one high-level offense after another, probably a big reason why they’ve allowed 430 yards per game the last four weeks. Regardless, Jalen Hurts has been impeccable down the stretch of every game, willing his team to win no matter the situation. Last week was the height of their luck, since Philly benefitted from a massive disparity in penalties and penalty yards. Buffalo outgained Philly for 200+ yards for the majority of the contest, but more late-game heroics from Hurts and his offense made it happen for another W. It’s unlikely they’ll get the same comeback opportunity this weekend, against a San Francisco team that looks just as scary as it did before its big win against Dallas in Week 5.
Brock Purdy has been perfect in three wins since the 49ers’ bye week, leading his offense to 31 points per game against three good defenses (JAX, TB, SEA). San Francisco’s star left tackle and arguably the best offensive lineman in the NFL, Trent Williams, has been a difference maker since he returned from injury several weeks back, and the offense is healthy all-around heading into Sunday. You know the gang– Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Greg Kittle– all at the top of their game heading into this Sunday. We imagine Kyle Shanahan is dying to unleash his most creative play-calls, too.
San Francisco will undoubtedly have extra motivation after they lost to Philly last year in the NFC title game, a matchup where they had no quarterback for three quarters, but that’s not the only reason why SF should have the edge here. In all aspects of football, the Niners are a well-oiled machine right now. We can’t say the same about Philly. The Birds also have Dallas on deck in an NFC East showdown at AT&T Stadium in Week 14, and they’re a little banged up. Star defensive lineman Fletcher Cox, a team leader for many years and key cog in Philly’s ultra-intimidating D-line, could sit as he recovers from a groin injury. Not to mention, every opponent– from Washington to Miami to Dallas to Kansas City and Buffalo– has given the Eagles their max-effort in recent weeks. Aka, the Birds got to be tired of constantly fending off motivated teams. This is an ideal confluence of factors for a team that, unlike the other squads Philly has faced, is too talented and too poised to drop the ball when given an opportunity. There’s a reason this line steamed up in San Fran’s favor within minutes, and it’s the only side to look at this Sunday.
San Francisco -3 +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)