Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +6 -106 BET365 +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +6 -110 888Sport 6 -110

Green Bay +6 over Kansas City

8:20 PM EST. The Kansas City Chiefs found a second-gear last weekend and ultimately annihilated the upstart Raiders in Vegas. After falling behind 0-14 early, their offense finally found a rhythm and more importantly, found ways to put up points in the second half, outsourcing Vegas 17-3 in the final two quarters. Patrick Mahomes was stellar as usual (27/34, 298 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs), and the KC defense kept the Raiders to only 113 yards in the second half after allowing 245 in the first. We loved what we saw from the Chiefs, who seem hyper-focused on the #1 seed in the AFC once again. Few teams are as elite in December, but we also hate this spot for Andy Reid’s team.

The Chiefs haven’t had an easy schedule as of late. In early November they flew out to Germany only a few days after Mahomes recovered from the flu, then they returned home after a bye and hosted the Eagles at home (a loss), then 6 days later they had to muster a comeback effort against a feisty opponent in their division, and after Sunday Night Football they’ll host the ultra-desperate Bills next Sunday.

Week 13 marks Patrick Mahomes first time at Lambeau Field. He won’t be going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers, but Mahomes and his colleagues have to contend with a Packers’ squad that’s improving every week. Green Bay has won three of its last four games and it could have easily been four straight (they outgained the Steelers in Pittsburgh but an unfortunate tipped-ball-turned interception ended Jordan Love’s game-winning TD drive). Jordan Love has been sensational. In November he threw for an average of 276.8 pass yards, a 66% completion percentage, and 8.1 yards per pass. He’s also tossed 8 TDs and only 2 INTs in the same span.

On Thanksgiving he shocked the football-world by aggressively attacking the Lions’ secondary with impressive accuracy, throwing lasers up and down the field and gaining an early lead. Ultimately it was too much for Detroit to overcome, and now Green Bay has renewed energy and a shot at the NFC playoffs. With a defense that’s playing hard and forcing opposing offenses off the field (opposing offenses are just 23-56, 41%, on third down conversions in GB’s last four games), motivation will be high for the Pack at home.

The Chiefs are never an easy out, but the Packers are coming off 10 days of rest and they have no lookahead (Week 14 they’re at MetLife Stadium against the pitiful Giants on MNF). There’s no way we can take KC at an inflated number, especially as road chalk.

Farley

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