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+135+130  +135

Posted at 10:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Houston +135 over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. Market perception is that the Texans are the worst team in this league. Check any power ranking you’d like and you’ll see 0-1-1 Houston at or near the bottom. The reality is that Houston has been far better than advertised despite its less than favorable results. Although they are winless, the Texans could easily be 2-0. Houston was up by 17 against the Colts in Week 1 before settling for the tie. Last Sunday, on the road in Denver, Texans quarterback Davis Mills had the game in his hands. After two big pass plays of more than 20 yards each, Houston was primed to tie it up. Instead, Mills was strip sacked and the Texans were toast.

The most interesting storyline coming into this game is the return of Lovie Smith to Chicago as a head coach. Smith had a good nine year run with the Bears. He led Chicago to the NFC Championship in 2006, which was also the Bears’ last Super Bowl appearance. Since his firing, the Bears have been searching for an identity, something Lovie’s Texans are beginning to develop.

The Bears are 1-1, after knocking off the 49ers in a Week 1 upset, but they were humbled by the Packers (again) last Sunday night. In both games played this season, Chicago has been dominated by the opposition. The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards, the Packers outgained them by 186 yards. Chicago had just 11 first downs on Sunday Night Football and only 15 in Week 1. Over the years, the Bears have been shell shocked by a loss to the hated Packers. Chicago has failed to cover in six straight post Packer games. The letdown after such a big game is real.

The goods under the hood back up the Bears impotence, as they rank 30th of 32 teams in total team DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which uses a variety of analytics to rank these teams. Surface stats can be very misleading and do not always tell the whole story. For comparison sake, the Texans are ranked 21st which is much higher than those power rankings discussed above. If one goes a step further, one will find Houston’s defense is already rounding into form under Smith, as it is the #16 unit in the league based on DVOA.

It might not look like it on the surface, but the oddsmakers are giving the Texans a ton of respect in this game. We’re listening. In Week 1, they were a seven point pooch at home to the Colts. Last week, Houston was 10½ in Denver. Now, the Texans are +2½ in Chicago. That’s pretty telling, no? Chicago is a bad favorite that cannot be recommended in that role.