NFL 2021

Week 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

-------------------------

Week 5

N.Y. Jets +2½ over ATLANTA

9:30 AM EST: The NFL’s yearly cash grab across the pond kickoffs this week with a beauty for the London faithful, featuring two teams with a combined 2-6 record. Readers of this space know that we despise these early morning contests from Jolly Old England because they are nearly impossible to bet. There are way too many variables that wipe out nearly any semblance of rhyme or reason and therefore, games like this one are easy to avoid.

If one were to look up all the results from games played in the U.K. over the years, one would see an extraordinary amount of blowouts because one team usually shows up and the other team parties. The early morning game is nothing more than these fucking greedy picks wanting to tie you up from 7 in the morning until midnight instead of 1:00 PM to midnight. They could easily start this game at 1:00 PM EST, as it would be very early in the evening in the U.K. but Roger will have none of that. In the midst of a world pandemic, Roger figures it’s a good idea to put players at risk even further but he don’t give a fuck who lives or who dies so we’ll just step aside and not get involved because if we were to lose in a blowout, we would have nobody to blame but ourselves. 

A breakdown really isn’t needed here. Had this game been played in the United States, it would be a different story, but there is little appeal here on both sides. For the Jets, the chance to build off a 27-24 overtime win over the Titans is much more difficult, as they need this trip like one needs a hole in the head.

As for the Falcons, they’re banged up with both receivers Calvin Ridley (personal) and Russell Gage (injury) missing the trip to England. On the defensive end, both lineman Marlon Davidson and linebacker Isaiah Oliver are out, with Oliver being placed on injury reserve and his season is over. We’ll cut it off there because we are not going to be betting on this game and have wasted too much time on it already. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +2½ -105

CINCINNATI +3 -105 over Green Bay

1:00 PM EST. With a 3-1 record, the Packers appear to have put their Week 1 blowout loss to the Saints behind them. Green Bay’s stock is on the rise in a big way but we are not buying. After a month into the season, the Packers are ranked just 17th in overall team DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) over at Football Outsiders. A further breakdown shows that it’s the Packers’ defense that has been the weak link, as it slots at just 23 out of 32 clubs. It’s not like the Packers have played a grueling schedule either. Games with the Saints, Lions, 49ers and Steelers have their strength of schedule (SOS) ranked at just 23rd as well. Shit is about to get real for Green Bay, as they are about to take a big step up in competition with the #2 toughest SOS the rest of the way.

On paper, Packers versus Bengals might look like an easy choice. One has the pedigree of a blue blood, while the other is affectionately known as the “Bungles.” However, those goods under the hood that expose the Packers’ warts, actually show that the Bengals are a team on the rise. Cincy ranks 10th in total DVOA, with their defense leading the way as a top five unit (fifth). The Bengals are 3-1 as well, but they are not getting the respect one usually gets for such a start. Perhaps their struggles with the Jaguars on a short week on Thursday Night Football have soured the market, but we put little stock into how a team looks in a situation that forces them to play a game on Sunday and then turn around and play again five days later. TNF is bad for everyone except the NFL, which is making money hand over fist to show its product on as many nights of the week as it will be allowed.

If you’re looking for a little sizzle for this steak between two sides that rarely see one another, consider that both Packers’ coach Matt LaFleur and Cincy coach Zac Taylor both spent time on Sean McVey’s staff in L.A. with the Rams. LaFleur was the offensive coordinator and Taylor was his assistant wide receivers coach. Not exactly Belichick vs Mangini, but one has to figure Taylor might have a little something cooking for his former supervisor. Recommendation: Cincinnati +3 -105

WASHINGTON +2 -105 over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. Since Hurricane Ida ravaged New Orleans, the Saints have been nomads. They were forced to move their training camp to Texas, played their first game in Jacksonville, and traveled to both Carolina and New England before finally returning to The Big Easy for a Week 4 date with the winless Giants. The Saints would lose that game in overtime. At 2-2, one could certainly give New Orleans a pass after all that running around. We will not. Not because it doesn’t deserve it, but because its grind is not over yet. However, next week provides some sweet relief. A bye.

Before that, the Saints must come face to face with The Football team, which is starting to pick it up under Taylor Heinicke. Washington outlasted the Falcons in Atlanta, with Heinicke throwing the go ahead touchdown with just over 30 seconds to go. Not a bad homecoming, kid. The undrafted 28-year-old is coming into his own. Dude only has five career starts, three here in 2021, but he is surrounded by some quality playmakers including Terry McLaurin, who might be the most underrated wide receiver in the league. The Football Team has committed to Heinicke after signing him to a two-year $4.75 million extension in the off-season. The arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick may have put Heinicke on the back burner, but since taking Fitz’s spot as the next man up, The Football Team has not missed a beat. A blowout loss to Buffalo looks to be one horrible game. Heinicke threw two of his three interceptions in that one, that’s to his eight touchdown passes. Not a bad ratio.

The talking points regarding the Football Team are getting way overblown. All we’re hearing (and we’re sure you’ve heard it too) is that Washington’s defense is the most overrated in the league (it was supposed to be good). Well, it hasn’t been good but the players are and this now becomes a case of buying low when market perception is that the defense is pure rat shit. Recommendation: WASHINGTON +2 -105

Tampa Bay -10 -105 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. Tom Brady worked that magic on Sunday Night Football and picked up another comeback prime-time win, this one at his old ballyard in New England. The Bradys are now 3-1 and appear to be on track for another run at the Lombardi Trophy. This time last year, Tompa Bay was tripping all over itself and couldn’t figure out whether to shit or wind its watch. This year it’s smooth sailing all the way to ring #7 for #12 and friends. However,  at the pay window, Tommy Boy has not been as kind. He has cashed just one ticket here in 2021 and that was against the pitiful Falcons. Not only are the Brady’s not paying off their backers, but Tampa Bay also left the efficient market holding the bag after the second most-watched SNF game of all time, drawing 28.5 million US viewers. That’s one-third of American households tuning into that game. Do you think they had some action?

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are in familiar territory, which is to say, the basement of this godforsaken league. At 1-3, the Fish might as well be 0-4 or 1-16. The Dolphins are like whale shit. They’re just floating unsuspectingly on the surface, waiting to cover all that come into contact with them in all that stank. In two home games this season, Miami has been outscored 62-17 against the Colts (27-17) and Bills (35-0). Now the G.O.A.T. is coming to graze in South Beach.

Can the Brady’s name their number here? Perhaps. Do they need to? Probably not. However, with a Week 6 trip to London on deck, it is very tough to get in bed with this Miami team. If the wheels come off the wagon here, and that is possible, how can the Dolphins swim back? When we back a side, we want a club that can compete and win, regardless of the point-spread. We do not want to be chasing backdoor covers with bad football teams. That is the Dolphins to a T. We understand there might be some resistance in the market to spot a price like this on the road with Tommy Boy, in a place he has struggled in his career, but do not let those previous results influence you here. The Dolphins are out of their league here and capable of getting blown out on any given Sunday. Recommendation: Tampa Bay -10 -105

CAROLINA -3 -105 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. This one is all about the efficient market that appears to have taken a stand after the Eagles opened as a 4½-point pup in this game. That number is now in the range you see here. If you liked Philadelphia, the best number is long gone. If there is value to be played here, it will be with the Panthers. 

Carolina is 3-1 but is not getting any respect from the market. Wins over the Jets and Texans don’t resonate, but a 26-7 drubbing of New Orleans should. Hanging around with the high octane Cowboys in a 36-28 loss last Sunday has value, too. While the Panthers did not cover, they also did not quit, closing a 22-point gap with a chance to sneak in the back door. Turnovers sunk the Panthers chances in the end, but that is a luck driven stat that has no bearing from one game to the next. Sam Darnold threw for 301 yards on the day and his pairing with DJ Moore is making stars out of both. At this point, Moore is getting most of the credit, but don’t be afraid to show some love to the quarterback.

Head to head, we can see the appeal that Jalen Hurts would have over Darnold. One is building his legacy from scratch, while the other is trying to get as much of the stench that playing pretty poorly for the Jets for three years will leave on you. However, Darnold is surrounded by a pretty damn good football team. We can not say the same for Hurts. 

Time and again in recent years, the Eagles have shown how fucked up they are as an organization from the top down. We need not go down the laundry list, but if you like, you may Google away until you're green in the face. 

What would this price be if Philly were playing at 3-1 Buffalo, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay? You get the point. Carolina is considered a rung below all those teams in this market, which means the Panthers are spotting far fewer points than they should be. Underlay. Recommendation: CAROLINA -3 -105

Detroit +10 -105 over MINNESOTA

1:00 PM EST. The Lions are winless. Again. The Dan Campbell/Jared Goff era has been dubbed a flub and Detroit’s stock is at a season low. Sure we’re just a month in, but perception is often reality in this market and the Lions look dead in the water just a month into the season. Despite the poor results on the surface, we’re not ready to throw in the towel on Campbell or Goff. We like both, to be honest. That doesn’t mean we’ll switch gears if their stock ever rises, but for the moment, that duo is one of the most undervalued in the league. We rarely discuss injuries, but it’s worth noting the Lions are basically The Walking Dead at this point and news that stud tight end T.J. Hockenson missed practice this week pushed the efficient market to bite, driving this line up from the opening number.

The Vikings were a small pooch at home to the Brownies just a week ago and now they are spotting an inflated price to the division-rival Lions. There is a reason they say you can often throw out the records in situations such as this and we’re inclined to lean that way as well. The Vikes résumé might look decent on paper with a case being made that they could be in a better position had a bounce or two gone their way, but that game last week exposed Minnesota. The blueprint for beating the Vikings is simple. Pressure Kirk Cousins and run the ball down their throats. It’s not like the Brownies cracked some mysterious code. The Seahawks were able to rack up over 100 rushing yards in Week 3, same with the Cardinals in Week 2 and the Bengals in Week 1. When a defense gives up big time rushing yards every week, it usually means they are on the field a lot. The Vikings have lost the time of possession in all but one game this season (Seattle) and last week, it was as lopsided as it gets (35:32-to-24:28). That 14-7 score flatters Minny so spectacularly to the point of them being a tad more overinflated than they already are. You want to talk about shining up a dog turd, well, here ya go. Recommendation: Detroit +10 -105

HOUSTON +9 -105 over New England

1:00 PM EST. Mac Jones lifted his leg and took a big whiz right in front of Tom Brady and the football world on Sunday night, letting the G.O.A.T. know that Foxboro was now his yard. In the end, Brady worked his magic (tip of the cap to the officials as always) and walked away with another storybook fourth-quarter comeback in his Hall of Fame career, but Tommy Boy did not pull down Jones’ pants and spank his bum like the market thought he might. Instead, Jones arguably outdueled #12 throwing for more yards (275-to-269) and touchdowns (2-to-0). Had a call or two gone the other way, the Patriots would have probably picked up the win. That said, Jones only increased his curb appeal and the market loves what it sees.

While nobody wants to hear about anybody else’s fantasy football team, you’re going to have to humor us because in this case, it’s relevant to that last point. In one of our deeper and more competitive Superflex leagues, one dude paid a hefty ransom for Jones on Monday morning. Buddy could have had Big Mac for pennies on the dollar last week and wasn’t interested. While it’s just one instance, we doubt that was an isolated situation in leagues across the continent. So what does that tell us about Jones’ value?

Let’s fit the Texans in here quickly because, really, what are we going to say here that will convince the market that this team is better than its 1-3 record and the 40-0 frog stomping they took up in Buffalo last week? Well, how about some freakin’ rain, man. You try to play quarterback in a monsoon in Orchard Park with 72,000 screaming drunk members of the Bills Mafia hurling every slug in the book at your poor mother and tennis-playing sister, Ali. So what if she said her brother was “the best quarterback ever.” What did y’all think she was going to say? That’s her little brother, man. She’s a smart woman, works as a financial planner in Houston, and went to grad school. Meanwhile, most of the Bills Mafia (we love you) could barely piece together a GED while in prison.

So the big question here is whether the Patriots are ready to go from being a 6-point pooch on Sunday Night Football to a near double-digit choice here. That’s a big swing that covers two converted touchdowns and then some. That’s a lot to ask for any pivot, let alone a rookie who has made just one start on the road at the Jets. In that game, Jones and the Pats were just 3-point chalk. That was only three weeks ago. Now the Mac Attack is laying this kind of lumber? Really? Coming off an impressive prime-time performance, the Patriots are an outstanding fade here. Recommendation: HOUSTON +9 -105

PITTSBURGH -105 over Denver

1:00 PM EST. Who would have pegged “Wobbly Balls” Teddy Bridgewater would be priced in this range, on the road in Pittsburgh just a month ago? That’s what a 3-1 start can do for a team. That lone loss for the Broncos came last Sunday in a 23-7 decision against Baltimore, but the Ravens are considered an elite team and it does not appear that Denver has taken much of a hit for that defeat. Considering the Broncos have gotten a free pass because they lost Bridgewater in the second half of that game and they’ve lost even less shine. This price suggests that

It might be easy to write off the Broncos’ defeat, having lost to the mighty Ravens, and slot them somewhere in the middle of the pack, but we’re not so eager to do so. First, Denver has played a weak ass schedule that ranks 30th on Football Outsiders (FO). That includes the Ravens, which says a lot. Their three wins? Giants, Jaguars, Jets. In that order. Those teams are a combined 2-10 and a pair of overtime wins from being 0-12. Color us unimpressed.

The Steelers were picked by many (including us) to take a step back in 2021. In Week 1, they were a 6½ point pooch in Buffalo, a sure sign of a changing of the AFC guard, but beat the Bills outright. Since then, it’s been a nosedive. Three straight losses have put the Steelers way behind the pack in the AFC North, as the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns are all 3-1. If you are to buy into the coverage surrounding the Steelers, Rome is burning. Cue the fiddle.

Pittsburgh has had its struggles this season, no doubt, but it’s also played the toughest schedule to date according to FO. Bills, Raiders, Bengals, Packers. Even the league’s best teams would have their hands full with such a slate. One of the reasons we weren’t high on the Steelers before the season began was because of this murderous sked, but we do not play favorites and cannot allow one made wager to influence another. There will be times this season when the Steelers are the play. We backed them in Week 1, faded them in Weeks 2 & 3, backed them last week and we’re going to come back on them here because it’s warranted. Denver cannot be road chalk in Pittsburgh. Recommendation: PITTSBURGH -105

Tennessee -4½ over JACKSONVILLE

1:00 PM EST. Once a fucking dirtbag, always a fucking dirtbag. Enter Urban Meyer. You can take the Xs and Os, recent results, fluctuations in stock, and over and underreactions and flush them down the crapper for this one. It’s storytime.

We often discuss that you cannot take the human element out of anything. Why? Because people are fucked up and they do really fucked up things that not only fuck up their own lives, but they fuck with others’ as well. Not cool. This brings us to Meyer, who had an interesting week. First, he didn’t get on the team plane following his Jaguars’ last-second loss to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. It’s arguable that was the best game the Jags had played in their previous 18 outings, all losses. Hell, Jacksonville was in line for the win after taking a 21-14 fourth-quarter lead. A bummer sure, but when you fumble fuck your way through scandal all the way to the top, and start 0-4, you should probably be on the private fucking jet. Meyer sure didn’t mind the rockstar treatment when Jags owner Shad Khan was courting him this offseason. Meanwhile, where’s this horndog? In his old stomping grounds in Columbus, OH, sitting on a stool at a bar. Meyer is wearing a spiffy pink shirt with the Ohio State logo engraved and sticking as if to say, “Look at fucking Me” along with his white shorts right from the country club, and his best pair of “dad” sneakers. Oh, there’s a busty co-ed grinding on his crotch like he’s in the campaign room at Sapphire's Gentleman’s Club in Vegas at three in the morning. How do we know this?! IT’S ON FUCKING CAMERA BECAUSE OF COURSE, IT IS! Why do we know what Brett Favre’s dick looks like? He sent it to some poor woman, and now it’s on the internet forever, that’s how. Nice Crocs, Brett. FUCK! DO. NOT. MEET. YOUR. HEROES. 

Let’s reel this back in and get back to ‘Ol Urban. How old is this dude? Motherfucker last worked on a college campus in 2018; he should be pretty fucking familiar with the concept of a camera phone. Meyer said he’s embarrassed and the poor woman’s mother worries for her daughter’s “emotional status.” The truth is those two things are probably true. However, do not think we are done here. We’re going to grind this dirtbag into the ground because the clock is ticking.

We’re not going to try and analyze why Urban Meyer does what he does. There is not enough LSD to go down that rabbit hole. What we are going to do is present a few tidbits that might help you, the loyal reader, form your own opinion on why this selfish motherfucker would somehow find himself in such a predicament.

Consider the rest of this write-up an open letter to the Meyers: 

Dear Mr. and Mrs. Meyer,

Look, we’re not going to pass judgment on anyone’s personal relationship, but Urban, buddy, could you not literally get your wang rubbed in front of the entire fucking world? You’re embarrassed, Urbs? Dude, we’re fucking embarrassed, and to be honest, for one shred of one-quarter of one-half of most of a single eighth of a second, we felt bad for you and your family. That was until your lovely wife took to Twitter.

Shelley, this dude is trash. You know this, we know this. Take him for all that you can and run for the hills. Stop with this stone-casting B.S. and stay the fuck off the internet. You should be able to buy a small island with the cash you are entitled to for putting up with your husband’s crap. Not interested?

Did you know when y’all were in Gainesville, 41 of the 121 players that were listed on the 2008 National Championship team were arrested either while at the University of Florida or leaving your husband’s program? One of those dudes probably murdered at least one person and his arrest in a 2007 bar fight was a pretty big deal. There are some pretty strong indications that our boy Urbs here was a pretty big enabler. In that, he didn’t really give a shit about his players as people, only that they won football games and helped him further his career and pad your bank account. I wonder if Odin Lloyd’s family dreams of a world where there was some accountability for the 31 Gators arrested in your husband’s six years at the helm. Yes, 31. Believe it or not, that curve was flattened after the players were out from under y’all’s thumb. 

Now we’re not blaming you directly, but when you constantly put up with bad behavior, that behavior is allowed to grow and fester and mutate, kind of like a virus. Sound familiar? I know Urban is familiar with that, as that was his first “scandal” with the Jags. Dude said a player’s vaccination status factored in his roster trimming decisions. Urbs, booby, you can’t say the quiet part out loud. Just look at Bill Belichick. He’s a silent assassin and sent Cam Newton packing after a team COVID violation with a nod and smile, completely void of controversy. Have you ever seen BB getting his knob polished in a Harvard bar? How do you like them apples?

In closing, the reality is, you deserve each other. When Urban inevitably gets fired (Shad Khan says he’s safe “for now,” quite the ringing endorsement) or is forced to step aside for “health reasons,” again, you can finally take more time for each other. We doubt there’s anything that Urban would like more. Except for the job at the University of Miami, we hear South Beach is gorgeous. You’ll love it.

All the best,

SW

The coach is now the laughing stock of the room. What that means is he's lost the players respect in a big way if he ever had to begin with. Now we’ll see how those same players will react. It's up to you to decide if it'll be a positive or negative reaction.  

Recommendation: Tennessee -4½ -105

Chicago +5½ -105 over LAS VEGAS

4:05 PM EST. How in the blue hell is Justin Fields going to go throw for throw with Derek Carr? The truth is, he’s probably not, but that’s the point. Market perception is that this is the Raiders game to lose, as the Bears are bringing a knife to a gunfight. It also might look like Chicago coach Matt Nagy has no idea what he’s doing after walking back his preseason statement that Andy Dalton would be his starter when healthy this season.

Can we take just a minute to actually praise Nagy for making the right decision here and moving right to the Justin Fields era? Talk about being damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Those same pundits that are criticizing the coach for not sticking with the plan are the same empty suits that shit on him for not starting Fields in Week 1. What is Nagy supposed to do? There is no winning in Chicago, where the Bears are king and the press will eat you up and spit you out. Just ask Mitch Trubisky. These motherfuckers could not wait to run that dude out of town and now? Fucking Mitch is the best quarterback the franchise had seen since Jim McMahon after a pair of playoff appearances under Nagy. Absence really does make the heart grow fonder, no?

The Raiders air attack has been the talk of The Strip and while the Raiders are coming off a Monday night loss to the Chargers, that doesn’t appear to be having much impact on their market appeal in Week 5. That said, this number might look like an easy one to cover for Vegas with the Bears toothless offense not expected to keep pace, but time and again, these 5-6½ point spreads have been a strong underdog number with the pooch often in a position to win outright. We are going to trust that is the case here. It appears that these points are inflated as well, as the Raiders have been the betting chalk just once this season (Week 3 vs. Miami) and did not cover the 4-point spread in a 31-28 overtime win. Being the favorite might not be a role that Vegas is well suited for. Now the Raiders are spotting an even bigger price to a superior Bears side than they were against the Dolphins? That’s right there is our prompt to move in. Recommendation: Chicago +5½ -105

Cleveland +2 -105 over L.A. CHARGERS

4:05 PM EST. What’s not to love about SoFi Stadium’s other, other team, the Chargers, after they beat L.A.’s second sons, the Raiders on Monday Night Football? We’re not going to lie; we dig Justin Herbert a lot; dude might be the best pivot in the league right now, Patrick Mahomes included. However, the secret is now out on Herbert after his three-touchdown performance on Monday Night Football and that big ‘ol 6’6” beautiful blonde stallion is not going back into the barn. If you want to ride with Herby, you are going to pay the price. When one wins in resounding fashion on MNF as the Chargers did in Week 4, one’s market appeal is often subject to a big uptick. 

It feels like Baker Mayfield is never included in the discussion as one of the great up-and-coming quarterbacks. We always hear about Mahomes, Herbert, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Even this year’s crop of rookies seems to overshadow Mayfieldn who has his team out to a 3-1 mark, for mainstream coverage. That one blemish came on the road in Kansas City in a game the Browns had the Chiefs on the ropes in the fourth quarter before Mahomes went Mahomes and overcame a 29-20 deficit in less than four minutes. Last week the Browns ran all over the Vikings, 14-7, posting 119 more rushing yards than Minnesota in that game. Perhaps it’s that two-headed beast of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield that has Mayfield flying under the radar. Dude hasn’t had to do it all himself. Baker has arguably the top offensive line in football in front of him, the best 1-2 punch behind him and enough quality receiving weapons around him that he’s not the star of this Brownies show. You know what? That’s cool. The Browns are running like a well oiled machine. They are the best team in the AFC North and the Dawg Pound will be out in L.A. in full force. However, Mayfield and company are getting no respect here. 

Justin Herbert has accomplished a lot in his short time and the recognition he so richly deserves is now coming his way in droves after a prime time showing last week. Being priced like this over a superior opponent, however, is a brand new badge of honor and might be taking the respect a bit too far against such a quality opponent. It’s not often there is an opportunity like this, that being, getting such great value on the best team in football. Recommendation: Cleveland +2 -105

San Francisco +5½ -105 over ARIZONA

4:25 PM EST. Is there a team hotter in this league than the Cardinals? How about a player taking a bigger step on the way to superstardom than Kyler Murray? A coach who has brushed the dust of a tarnished reputation to regain his reputation as an offensive guru? We don’t think so.

The Red Birds are the last standing undefeated team after smashing the Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday and their stock is soaring. We’re not going to downplay their offensive prowess, but we are going to point out the Cardinals’ role this week changes dramatically over last, where they were a plucky pooch on the road. Now they are spotting inflated points with a massive target on their backs. Meanwhile, the visiting 49ers have lost two straight and are making a change at quarterback.

Trey Lance, come on down! An injury to Jimmy Garoppolo has Lance in the spotlight this week. The rookie is most likely to get the start in Week 5. Even if Jimmy G dresses, he’s not 100%, opening the door for more Lance than we’ve seen thus far. This season, rookies making their first starts on the road have not fared well with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Davis Mills all losing in that spot, but those results do not matter here. However, those starts will be used as fodder for the talking heads, which could have an influence on the market. As for what to expect from Lance, he’s a wild card, but the 49ers are a veteran team and you know head coach Kyle Shanahan has been salivating to take Lance for a test drive and really see what the kid can do. The 49ers have now lost two straight, their stock is low and despite ripping up tickets on them the last two weeks, we’re going to stick with it one more time. If we liked San Fran as a home favorite against both the Packers and Seahawks, you can bet your sweet ass we are scooping up these points. Recommendation: San Francisco +5½

DALLAS -7 -105 over N.Y. Giants

4:25 PM EST. This is going to be the shortest write-up of the season. There is no value in a Giants team that is taking back a similar price in Dallas as it was in New Orleans a week ago. That’s it. Recommendation: DALLAS -7 -105

KANSAS CITY -3 -105 over Buffalo

8:20 PM EST. This gem is the late game on Sunday, which will absolutely attract a shitload of action. The 3-1 Bills are on a three-game winning streak and already in firm control of the AFC East. The 2-2 Chiefs returned to form after a two-game stumble led to a losing record. 

Look, Buffalo’s season-opening loss to the Steelers is a bigger head-scratcher with every passing week but the market has long forgotten about that. Much fresher is Buffalo’s 40-0 win over Houston last week and it’s 35-0 win over Miami three weeks ago. Throw in a 43-21 donkey kick over the Football team in between and it adds up to the Bills outsourcing the opposition by a combined 118-21 over the past three weeks. That’s pretty sick but you know what’s sicker? Buffalo’s four opponents this year might be the four worst teams in the NFL. Washington is 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 after two last second victories. The other three teams are all 1-3 and deserve to be 0-4. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Buffalo’s opposition could easily be a combined 0-16 this season.  

Meanwhile, Kansas City has played Cleveland, Baltimore, the Chargers and Philadelphia. Look at all the teams in the NFL and try and find one that has played a tougher schedule than the Chiefs and we promise you that you won’t find one. Kansas City’s easiest opponent this year (Philadelphia) would be Buffalo’s toughest opponent. One team is battle tested to a large degree and one team has played a bunch of nobodies. 

The Chiefs crawled out of their 1-2 hole by posting 42 points against the Eagles but they could have easily lost the two games they won to be 0-4. Furthermore, the Chiefs defense allowed at least 29 points to every opponent, and their 125 total points allowed are second only to the 1-3 Falcons (128). Point being that the Chiefs have lost the shiny look of the team to beat but there’s more cheap fodder for pick sellers. First, this is revenge for the Bills after their loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game. Ah yes, the ol’ revenge angle that works out once every leap year. Also, Kansas City has covered just three times in their last 15 games and in seven of their past eight home games. To that we say bring it on because when K.C. was failing to cover, its stock was through the roof, thus leading to inflated points. Those inflated points and stock being through the roof has shifted to Buffalo and now it is the Bills and not the Chiefs that are grossly overvalued. Revenge this. Recommendation: Kansas City -3 +100

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.