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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. 

NEW ORLEANS +160 Green Bay

4:25 PM EST. The Packers were the leaders in the clubhouse with the most disruptive offseason in the league, but thanks to Hurricane Ida, the Saints are now in possession of that most dubious offseason accolade. Although unlike the Packers, whose troubles with quarterback Aaron Rodgers were totally self-inflicted, New Orleans was once again the victim of Mother Nature.

The Saints have been displaced for a couple of weeks now, practicing in Dallas with the plan to play this Week 1 showdown in Jacksonville. Prior to Ida, the Saints' biggest offseason headline was the retirement of Drew Brees. With Brees out of the picture, Jameis Winston, the former first overall pick of the Buccaneers, will get a second shot at starting quarterback life. Winston put up big numbers in Tampa and a year of watching Brees could not have hurt. There is an expectation that the Saints will take a step back here in 2021, but we're not so sure. Last season, New Orleans had a third-string tight end at the pivot position for much of the year and did not miss a beat without the injured Brees. To expect big time regression here might be naive.

How many Hall of Fame quarterbacks does one organization have to try and run prematurely out of town before it becomes a pattern of behavior? We'll not get into the gritty details of the Aaron Rodgers/Packers standoff, as it was covered extensively all summer and was even the main topic of a made-for-TV golf special where he and Bryson DeChambeau took on Tom Brady and Phil Mickelson head-to-head, with Brady trying to sell Rodgers on the benefits of greener pastures. Rodgers' discontent seemed to boil over in a potential draft-day deal reported by Adam Schefter that would send Rodgers back home to the Bay Area to his boyhood favorite 49ers, but the Packers front office botched that too. Instead of ripping off the Band-Aid and turning the page on the disgruntled Rodgers, the Packers chose to allow themselves to be embarrassed by backing out of the deal and riding out whatever plans #12 has cooked up for his own future.

The last time the Saints were homeless during the 2005 season, it did not go well. Those flashbacks and the recent coverage of that season alongside the potential impact of Ida may have this market bearish on the Saints. In fact, it appears the market has taken a stand here and sees the Saints as an easy target for one of the top contenders in the NFC. While not quite a Super Bowl hangover, another NFC Championship game loss for Rodgers and company looms large. The stars were aligned for the Packers in 2020, but they could not seal the deal at home when it mattered most. Blame the defense for getting caught flat-footed on a Brady bomb before the half, blame Rodgers’ indecision for not running in a potential touchdown late, or blame head coach Matt LaFleur for opting for a field goal when only a touchdown would do any good. All are worthy of your criticism. If the market wants to crown the Packers' asses here in Week 1, they may, but we're not ready to go there yet.

This one is all about market perception. Drew Brees was a fixture in New Orleans for years and he was that one guy that could be counted on to give you a great chance of cashing a ticket. Take that away from the Saints and the market doesn’t like it, thus setting up a buy low opportunity. Add the ever reliable Aaron Rodgers on the other side along with the seemingly short price and in Week 1, the market will almost always lean to a guy they know they can trust. Our strategy is partly predicated on exploiting market deficiencies and to us, this one sticks out as such. Jameis Winston has paid his dues, he’s talented as can be, he has the trust of his teammates and coaches and he and the Saints should probably be favored here.

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